| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.58 | 3.60 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.02 | 4.04 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.32 | 4.36 | -0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.57 | 4.60 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.19 | 4.25 | -0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.35 | 4.41 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 27 March.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields generally fell modestly, vaguely following the direction of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night. Economic data included February’s monthly inflation indices and the latest reading of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.295% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.78%, 54bps below the current cash rate, or around two 25bp cuts between now and next March.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally fell moderately on Wednesday night (AEST). There were no economic data releases of note.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.295% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.35% rate, 98bps less than the current rate.
