| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.60 | 3.59 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.04 | 4.02 | 0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.36 | 4.33 | 0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.60 | 4.63 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.41 | 4.42 | -0.01 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 26 March.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields increased modestly, lagging the upward movements of US Treasury yields on Monday night. Data releases were limited to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index Bulletin.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.295% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.77%, 55bps below the current cash rate, or over two 25bp cuts between now and next March.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally declined modestly on Tuesday night (AEST). Data releases included reports on March consumer confidence, February durable goods orders and a Federal Reserve regional activity index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.29% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.375% rate, 95bps less than the current rate.
