| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.59 | 3.62 | -0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.02 | 4.05 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.33 | 4.36 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.63 | 4.60 | 0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.25 | 4.20 | 0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.42 | 4.38 | 0.04 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 25 March.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields declined moderately, although they lagged the larger downward movements of US Treasury yields on Friday night.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.30% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.76%, 56bps below the current cash rate, or over two 25bp cuts between now and next March.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose across the curve on Monday night. Data releases included February new home sales numbers and a couple of Federal Reserve activity indices.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.30% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.36% rate, 97bps less than the current rate.
