| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.62 | 3.66 | -0.04 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.05 | 4.11 | -0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.36 | 4.44 | -0.08 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.60 | 4.64 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.20 | 4.27 | -0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.38 | 4.44 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 22 March.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields fell back, largely ignoring movements of US Treasury yields on Thursday night which rose at the short end.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.29% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.795%, roughly 53bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts between now and next March.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across the curve on Friday night in the absence of notable data releases.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.285% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.32% rate, roughly 101bps less than the current rate.
