| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.66 | 3.61 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.11 | 4.07 | 0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.44 | 4.38 | 0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.64 | 4.60 | 0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.27 | 4.28 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.44 | 4.45 | -0.01 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 21 March.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields rose almost uniformly across the curve, unlike the movements of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night which rose sharply at just the short end. The moves came after February Labour Force figures were much stronger than expected.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.295% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.835%, roughly 49bps below the current cash rate, or almost two 25bp cuts between now and next March.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose moderately on Thursday night while longer-term yields slipped a little. Data releases included February home sales, March S&P Global PMIs and The Conference Board Leading Economic Index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.295% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.345% rate, roughly 98bps less than the current rate.
