| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.61 | 3.63 | -0.02 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.07 | 4.10 | -0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.38 | 4.39 | -0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.60 | 4.69 | -0.09 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.28 | 4.29 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.45 | 4.44 | 0.01 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 20 March.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government Bond yields declined, lagging the downward movements of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night to some degree. There were no domestic economic data releases.
The next RBA Board meeting takes place over two days and ends on 7 May. May futures imply an average cash rate of 4.285% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 futures imply 3.79%, 54bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts between now and next March.
US Treasury bond yields fell on Wednesday night, especially at the short end, following the FOMC’s decision to leave its federal funds rate target range and publication of committee members’ rate forecasts (“dotplots”).
The next FOMC meeting takes place over two days and ends on 1 May. May federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.29% for the month and thus a modest probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, March 2025 contracts implied a 4.315% rate, 101bps less than the current rate.
US MARKETS
