| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.812 | 3.86 | -0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.398 | 4.44 | -0.04 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.948 | 4.99 | -0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.096 | 4.17 | -0.08 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.298 | 4.40 | -0.10 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.556 | 4.66 | -0.10 |
* Implied yields from March 2025 futures. As at 29 January.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell moderately across a slightly flatter curve. Economic reports of note released on the day were limited to December quarter CPI figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 February 2025. February futures implied an average cash rate of 4.255% for the month, thus pricing in a high probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. December futures implied 3.49%, 85bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring three 25bp cuts and some probability of a fourth one between now and next December.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields finished steady while longer-term yields declined a touch. There were no economic reports of note on the day and the FOMC decided to maintain its current federal funds rate target range.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 19 March. March federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.31% for the month and thus a small probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. December contracts implied 3.875%, 45bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
