| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.84 | 3.90 | -0.06 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.45 | 4.51 | -0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.87 | 4.92 | -0.05 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.22 | 4.20 | 0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.56 | 4.53 | 0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.80 | 4.77 | 0.03 |
* Implied yields from March 2025 futures. As at 28 January.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell almost-uniformly across the curve. Economic reports of note released on the day were limited to NAB’s December Business Survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 February 2025. February futures implied an average cash rate of 4.265% for the month, thus pricing in a good chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. December futures implied 3.555%, 78bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring three 25bp cuts and a small probability of a fourth one between now and next December.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose moderately across the curve. Economic reports released on the day included figures for December durable goods, The Conference Board’s January consumer sentiment survey and the Richmond Fed’s January activity index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 29 January. February federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month and thus a tiny probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. December contracts implied 3.845%, 48bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
