| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.91 | 3.91 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.50 | 4.49 | 0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.91 | 4.91 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.29 | 4.30 | -0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.65 | 4.60 | 0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.88 | 4.82 | 0.06 |
* Implied yields from March 2025 futures. As at 23 January.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields barely moved. There were no domestic economic reports of note released on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 February 2025. February futures implied an average cash rate of 4.27% for the month, thus pricing in a good chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. December futures implied 3.63%, 71bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring two 25bp cuts and a high probability of a third one between now and next December.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields slipped a touch while longer-term yield rose moderately. Economic reports released on the day were limited to the latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing survey and weekly jobless claim figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 29 January. February federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month and thus a tiny probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. December contracts implied 3.94%, 39bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
