| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.95 | 3.94 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.53 | 4.53 | 0.00 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.96 | 4.95 | 0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.29 | 4.24 | 0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.63 | 4.62 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.86 | 4.86 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from March 2025 futures. As at 17 January.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally crept slightly higher. There were no economic reports of note released on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 February 2025. February futures implied an average cash rate of 4.275% for the month, thus pricing in a good chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. December futures implied 3.675%, 66bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring two 25bp cuts and a good chance of a third one between now and next December.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose moderately while longer-term yields barely moved. Notable economic reports released on the day included December industrial production, December housing permits and December housing starts.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 29 January. February federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month and thus a tiny probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. December contracts implied 3.955%, 37bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
