| Name | Daily Close | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 47,112.45 | 664.18 | 1.43% |
| S&P 500 | 6,765.88 | 60.76 | 0.91% |
| Nasdaq | 23,025.59 | 153.59 | 0.67% |
| VIX | 18.56 | -1.96 | -9.55% |
| Gold | 4,129.90 | -10.1 | -0.24% |
| Oil | 58.09 | 0.14 | 0.24% |
OVERVIEW OF THE US MARKET
US stocks climbed for a third consecutive day on November 25, 2025, buoyed by renewed bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December amid softer-than-expected economic data. The S&P 500 rose 0.91% to close at 6765.88, recovering from intraday swings and building on Monday’s gains. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.67% to 23025.59, trimming an earlier decline of as much as 1.3% as Big Tech valuations fluctuated on AI chip competition news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed with a 1.43% advance to 47112.45, driven by strength in health care and consumer sectors.
Sector performance was mixed, with health care leading at 2.16%, followed by consumer discretionary up 1.92% and communication services gaining 1.63%. Energy and utilities lagged, down 0.68% and 0.35% respectively, amid falling oil prices on Ukraine-Russia peace talk progress. Individual movers included Alphabet Inc. rising 1.53% amid reports of Meta Platforms discussing use of Google’s AI chips, pushing Alphabet closer to a $4 trillion valuation. Nvidia Corp. fell 2.59% on competition concerns, with high trading volume of 319.4 million shares. Other notable decliners were NIO Inc. ADR down 4.35% and Ondas Holdings Inc. off 3.21%, while Opendoor Technologies Inc. edged up 0.65%.
Economic releases on Tuesday reinforced dovish Fed expectations. September retail sales rose modestly by 0.2%, below the 0.4% forecast and prior 0.6%, with the control group unexpectedly declining 0.1%. November consumer confidence slid to a seven-month low of 93.4, missing estimates of 94.6, amid job and economy anxieties. Private payrolls data for the four weeks ending November 8 showed a moderating labor market with an average loss of 13,500 jobs. These figures boosted December rate-cut odds to about 80%, up from recent fluctuations, following dovish policymaker remarks.
White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emerged as a front-runner for Fed chair, adding to policy uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated ongoing interviews for the role, with a potential announcement before Christmas. Broader market sentiment improved as the MSCI World Index rose 0.9%, though Bitcoin dropped 1.7% below $88,000, on track for its worst month since 2022 amid outflows from crypto ETFs.
Investors are eyeing this week’s key events, including durable goods orders and jobless claims on Wednesday, and preliminary Q3 GDP on Thursday. Strategists like those at Bloomberg note the revival in rate-cut bets supports risk assets for a potential year-end rally, barring shocks. However, AI frenzy continues to reorder markets, with Nvidia’s dominance challenged by Alphabet’s Gemini model and TPU chips, potentially shifting leadership among tech giants. Three years post-ChatGPT, AI has powered 64% of S&P gains, concentrating the index in seven megacaps now at 35% weighting.
Crypto traders face holiday scrutiny after a $1 trillion wipeout, with retail investors like Michael Smith and Zach Lonergan defending positions amid family gatherings. Despite caution, metrics like Bitcoin’s RSI at 32 suggest oversold conditions, with some optimism for a rebound above $90,000.
OVERVIEW OF THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET
Australian shares edged higher on November 25, 2025, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing up 0.14% at 8,537.0, marking a modest gain amid mixed sector performance and firmer commodity prices. The broader All Ordinaries rose 0.27% to 8,824.2, while small caps outperformed with the Small Ords up 1.49%. Futures pointed to further strength, advancing 1.1% overnight, a 109-point premium to the close, setting up for a third straight session of gains on Wednesday.
Materials led sectors with a 1.70% rise, buoyed by copper’s 0.91% gain and general strength in critical minerals. Information technology added 1.20%, and energy climbed 0.63%. Financials lagged, down 0.67%, with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank falling 7.4% on money laundering deficiencies. Consumer staples dropped 0.56%, utilities 0.50%, and real estate 0.52%. Standouts included Metallium up 24.8% on Nasdaq listing plans, Droneshield surging 14.6% on a $5.2m European military contract, and Ramsay Health Care gaining 12.7% post-AGM presentation.
Precious metals and lithium stocks shone: Lindian Resources rose 12.3%, Titan Minerals 11.0%, and Winsome Resources 9.3% on high-grade drilling. Ora Banda Mining added 9.8%, and Wildcat Resources 8.2%. Decliners featured Fleetwood down 9.5% on CEO departure, Felix Gold off 8.3% on gold results, and Iress slipping 6.1% amid media speculation.
No major local data released Tuesday, but investors eye Wednesday’s October CPI (weighted 3.6% y/y forecast), key for RBA rate outlook. AUD/USD firmed 0.11% to 0.6455 late, rallying from 0.6436 lows on US data weakness, forming a bullish hammer candle. This supports equities as the dollar weakens.
Broker moves included downgrades for Accent Group to hold/neutral, with targets cut to $1.10/$1.08. Broader sentiment ties to US trends, with S&P 500 up 0.91% aiding local futures. Miners benefit from commodity firmness, while AI themes echo globally, though local focus remains on inflation and spending.
Upcoming: Thursday’s Q3 capital expenditure (0.5% forecast) and Friday’s private credit. If CPI softens, rate-cut bets may rise, boosting cyclicals. Sterling shrugged fiscal concerns pre-UK budget, mirroring AUD resilience.
