JCB find the YieldReport to be an invaluable summary of all debt market activity. Whilst we are focussed on the highest grade bonds it is important to see what is..Angus Coote, Executive Director, JCB Active Bond Fund
Weaker-than-expected retail sales data on Tuesday led to lower bond yields as month-to-month sales rose just 0.1%, falling short of estimates. This resulted in stocks rising as investors considered the data’s impact on rate cut forecasts.
US stocks edged up after May retail sales data showed a weaker-than-expected increase, sending Treasury yields lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their record-setting run, as investors assessed the impact of a less robust consumer on rate cut outlooks. Month-over-month sales rose 0.1% in May, below estimates, with prior months revised lower. Year-over-year, sales climbed 2.3%.
Investors are sensitive to signs of economic weakness and are closely watching how this might influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Treasury yields dropped about three basis points to 4.25%.
Quincy Krosby of LPL Financial noted that the weak retail sales report and downward revisions have raised concerns about consumer pressure from prices. If employment data, especially initial unemployment claims, continue to soften, the Fed may need to adjust its timetable for policy easing. Most investors expect the first rate cut in September, but recent Fed comments suggest it could be delayed until December.
Shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday, the S&P 500 was at 5,483.03, up 0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 38,848.97, up 0.18%, and the Nasdaq composite was at 17,874.40, up 0.08%. Wedbush Securities indicated that Microsoft could climb 24% to $550 due to AI monetization.
Additionally, Treasury secretaries Janet Yellen and Larry Summers criticized Trump’s plan to replace the income tax with tariffs.
LOCAL MARKET
Australian shares are set to dip slightly after a standout rally from US chipmaker Nvidia contrasted with a quiet session on Wall Street. ASX futures are down 8 points or 0.1% to 7775 at 7am AEST.
In the US, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 5487.03, a record high, buoyed by Nvidia, which surged 3.5%, making it the world’s most valuable publicly traded company with a market cap of $US3.4 trillion. Meanwhile, Microsoft and Apple closed lower, with their market caps slipping to $US3.32 trillion and $US3.29 trillion, respectively. Outside tech, stocks were mostly unchanged as US retail sales rose 0.1% in May, below the expected 0.3%. However, May industrial production and manufacturing output exceeded expectations.
In commodities, Brent Crude rose 0.8% to $US84.90 amid geopolitical tensions, gold increased 0.6% to $US2332.07 per ounce, and iron ore futures climbed 1% to $US106.40 per tonne.
Fletcher Building is selling 50% of its Fiji construction business. The Australian Financial Review’s Street Talk column reported that CleanTech Lithium is seeking early support from Australian fund managers for its ASX debut.