| Name | Price | Change | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 44,911.26 | -11.01 | -0.02% |
| S&P 500 | 6,468.54 | 1.96 | 0.03% |
| Nasdaq | 21,710.67 | -2.47 | -0.01% |
| VIX | 14.83 | 0.34 | 2.35% |
| Gold | 3,379.20 | -4 | -0.12% |
| Oil | 64.04 | 0.08 | 0.13% |
OVERVIEW OF THE US MARKET
Wall Street ended mixed on August 14, 2025, as hotter-than-expected producer price inflation data tempered rate-cut enthusiasm, though the S&P 500 eked out a slight gain to notch another closing record. The S&P 500 rose 0.03% to 6,468.54, the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.01% to 21,710.67, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.02%, or 11.01 points, to 44,911.26. The Morningstar US Market Index was flat. Communication services led with a 0.42% advance, followed by consumer discretionary (+0.45%) and financials (+0.55%), while materials (-0.81%), real estate (-0.72%), and utilities (-0.71%) lagged.
Large-cap stocks showed resilience amid the choppy session, with growth and value styles nearly even. Of US-listed companies, gains were narrow, reflecting caution after July’s Producer Price Index for machine manufacturing rose to 191.4 (up from 190.7, implying stronger-than-anticipated inflation pressures). Actives highlighted Opendoor Technologies (+25.62% to $3.04) on real estate tech buzz, TeraWulf (+59.52% to $8.71) amid crypto mining hype, Intel (+7.38% to $23.86), NVIDIA (+0.24% to $182.02), and Amcor (-11.87% to $8.76) on packaging sector woes.
Investors digested the PPI surprise, which cooled bets on aggressive Fed easing despite inline July CPI (core monthly at 0.3%), and a 90-day US-China tariff truce extension. July initial jobless claims fell to 224k (better than 228k poll), signaling labor strength. Attention turns to tomorrow’s August 15 retail sales (poll +0.5% monthly) and industrial production (poll flat), which could sway September cut odds.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted ongoing tariff talks, emphasizing Trump’s final say on extensions amid resilient US economy. A recent study in the Journal of Financial Economics by Delao, Han, and Myers found that differences in stock P/E ratios are 75% driven by expected future returns rather than earnings growth, challenging growth-focused narratives and highlighting discount rates or mispricing as key drivers—relevant amid current high valuations.
With the Fed rate at 4.25%-4.5%, markets seek easing signals, as Chair Powell may face dissent for labor support. Strategists at HSBC, Morgan Stanley, and UBS maintain bullish views, citing earnings strength, tariff clarity, and AI boosts, forecasting advances into 2026. Goldman’s chief equity strategist warns tariffs could erode prices despite deals, advising diversification given recession dodge and elevated multiples.
OVERVIEW OF THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET
Australia’s share market advanced on August 14, 2025, touching a fresh intraday record before easing, as banking rebounds offset resource dips amid post-RBA cut optimism. The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.53%, or 46.7 points, to 8,873.8—7 points shy of Tuesday’s closing high—while the All Ordinaries gained 0.51% to 9,149.1. Advancers outpaced decliners 166 to 107 on the S&P/ASX 300, reflecting broad support.
Eight of 11 sectors climbed, led by utilities (+3.51%) on Origin Energy’s surge, financials (+1.29%), and consumer discretionary (+0.84%). Communication services fell 0.93%, materials dipped 0.45% on iron ore at US$102/t (-1.6%), and energy slipped 0.23%. Financials rebounded: Westpac (+6.3%) after a strong Q3 update, ANZ (+1.7%), NAB (+1.7%), and Macquarie higher, though CBA (-1.1%). Materials mixed: Rio Tinto (-3.7%), Fortescue (-1.7%), but gold miners up—Evolution Mining (+3.9%) on doubled profits.
Standouts: Waratah Minerals (+22.0%) on placement momentum, Dateline Resources (+21.2%) extending REE gains, and Metal Powder Works (+17.1%). Pro Medicus (+6.2%) on 40% profit lift to $115.2 million, Temple & Webster (+8.7%) post-results. Decliners: Victory Metals (-10.0%) pullback, Liontown Resources (-9.1%) on SPP and lithium futures dip (later recovered).
July employment rose 24.5k (near 25k poll), unemployment held at 4.2% (as expected), aligning with RBA’s post-3.60% cut view. The Aussie dollar edged up 0.04% to 65.48 US cents. Bitcoin hit US$124,000 on ETF inflows and Trump retirement fund policy.
AMP’s Shane Oliver views easing as bullish if recession-avoided, boosting profits vs. cash, but flags volatility from valuations and tariffs. A Journal of Financial Economics study notes P/E spreads 75% from return expectations, not growth, urging focus on discounts/mispricing. Watch tomorrow’s US retail sales for global cues.