| Name | Daily Close | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 43,621.16 | 159.95 | 0.37% |
| S&P 500 | 5,955.25 | -28 | -0.47% |
| Nasdaq | 19,026.39 | -260.54 | -1.35% |
| VIX | 19.43 | 0.45 | 2.37% |
| Gold | 2,928.60 | -34.6 | -1.17% |
| Oil | 69.12 | -1.58 | -2.23% |
US MARKET
US stocks plunged on Friday as economic data raised concerns about a slowing US economy and persistent inflation, prompting investors to seek safer assets. The S&P 500 lost 1.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 2.1%, while the Dow Jones plunged 748 points, marking its biggest loss of the year.
Consumer sentiment also took a hit, with the University of Michigan’s index falling to 64.7, reflecting growing concerns over inflation, which consumers now expect to rise to 4.3% in the coming year. The slide followed Walmart’s (-2.5%) disappointing outlook and broader fears about the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies.
In the US, what this week highlighted, and what is feeding into equities and bonds, is the distinction between actual macro-economic data releases (solid, resilient) yet consumer sentiment and expectations (weak). The actual versus the perceived. The latter may end being a lead indicator of the former. Less confident consumers and businesses certainly are not a positive for economic growth if taken in isolation.
Nvidia is scheduled to release its latest quarterly results next Wednesday (Thursday AEDT) and analysts have begun to publish previews, optimistic generally speaking. The result will very important with respect to the Mag 7 direction and AI more broadly, given Nvidia is effectively at the center of the AI universe.
LOCAL MARKET
The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.32% to close at 8,296 on Friday and declined more than 3% over the week, driven by a selloff in heavyweight iron ore miners and bank stocks following disappointing earnings reports. On Friday, notable losses included Commonwealth Bank (-2.6%), Wesfarmers (-1.9%), WiseTech Global (-1.4%), Aristocrat Leisure (-1.2%), and REA Group (-11.3%).
Sentiment was also dampened by the RBA’s hawkish stance on interest rates, signalling a more gradual easing path than previously expected. Latest data pointed to a strong labour market and robust private sector activity in Australia. Additionally, global market sentiment was weighed down by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
Nearly 70% of the ASX 200 has now reported December half results since the start of February. Share price reactions have been particularly volatile, with stocks moving more than 9% on average on the day they report. UBS suggested this could be due to stale earnings estimates. Contrast this to the US 4Q season. Share price reactions have generally quite muted. Generally. And reason why is that it was a solid earnings season – CY25 EPS growth expectations for the S&P 500 increased from 8% to 12%.
ASX Futures indicate the S&P/ASX 200 will open 0.8 per cent lower on Monday, extending last week’s 3 per cent slump which was the benchmark’s worst since September 2022.