| Name | Daily Close | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 40,829.00 | -389.83 | -0.95% |
| S&P 500 | 5,606.91 | -43.47 | -0.77% |
| Nasdaq | 17,689.66 | -154.58 | -0.87% |
| VIX | 24.76 | 1.12 | 4.74% |
| Gold | 3,396.50 | -26.3 | -0.77% |
| Oil | 59.68 | 0.59 | 1.00% |
US MARKET
The India story, the Germany story, the Fed story, the dollar story, but trade remains the most dominant story, at least in the short term. And now the focus is on US – China , and they are starting from a mere 145%. China in the interim dropped rates, to start from a position of strength. Note that – China is not going into Geneva talks acting like a meek mouse. There’s a lot riding on these talks. Negotiations haven’t even started.
What’s interesting at the moment is that we have a bifurcation of views depending on where you’re based. Americans generally tend to be much more positive on overall the situation and what’s going to happen here through two different narratives. One is that Trump’s plan is a good plan. He’ll get loads of great deals and loads of investments and loads of great trade deals. The other is that he’ll have to backtrack so aggressively that that’ll provide such a relief and he’ll instead focus some fiscal and abandon tariffs entirely. Even though they’re contradictory. Americans tend to be more positive on what’s happening and that there’ll ultimately be a relief rally. The rest of the world is more concerned. It is that marginal flow from the rest of the world wanting to decrease their US exposure of the coming years.
And anyone that thinks American democracy is dead, then you weren’t watch Scott Bessant get grilled by Congress. I was. US stocks mostly rose Wednesday as investors weighed the potential impact of tariffs on businesses ahead of the Fed’s policy decision. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 wavered. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%. The Fed is expected to hold its rates unchanged, but Chairman Powell will likely unveil insights on how FOMC members balance current risks of inflation and lower growth from aggressive tariffs by the US government.
On the corporate front (that’s right, the micro vs the macro – you’d be forgiven), Disney surged 9% after reporting a surprise increase in streaming subscribers, and AMD rose 3% after its results. On the other hand, Alphabet lost over 6% after Apple said it is looking for AI-powered search engines in its Safari browser, suggesting the partnership with Google may be coming to the end.
Meanwhile, fancy comedic irony? The US trade deficit widened to a record in March as companies rushed to import products including pharmaceuticals as the Trump administration readied sweeping tariffs. The goods and services trade gap grew 14% from the prior month to $140.5 billion, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a $137.2 billion deficit. Imports of consumer goods climbed by the most on record, primarily due to the largest-ever inflow of pharmaceutical preparations. Imports of capital equipment and motor vehicles also increased. Let’s wait for April.
Overview of the Australian Market
The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.33% to close at 8,178 on Wednesday, breaking a two-day decline as reports that top US officials are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts this week raised optimism about potential US-China trade negotiations, boosting sentiment globally.
On the domestic front, data showed continued weakness in Australia’s industrial sector in April, with trade and election-related uncertainties weighing heavily on manufacturing, particularly in export-exposed areas.
In corporate news, National Australia Bank surged 1.9% after posting better-than-expected first-half cash earnings. Meanwhile, Macquarie Group rose 0.7% even after regulators launched new enforcement actions against its banking unit over significant compliance breaches. Elsewhere, mining and energy stocks broadly advanced, while gold-related shares came under pressure.
