News

April home approvals slip; low level “stark” when compared to rising population

30 May 2024

Summary: Home approval numbers down 0.3% in April, contrasts with expected rise; 3.5% higher than April 2023; Westpac: confirms new dwelling investment will remain weak, low level stark when compared to rising population; ACGB yields up; cash rate expectations largely unchanged; ANZ: expects pick up later in 2024 on higher house prices, easing labour shortages; house approvals down 1.0%, apartments up 1.1%; non-residential approvals down 4.6% in dollar terms, residential alterations up 0.4%.

Building approvals for dwellings, that is apartments and houses, headed south after mid-2018. As an indicator of investor confidence, falling approvals had presented a worrying signal, not just for the building sector but for the overall economy. However, approval figures from late-2019 and the early months of 2020 painted a picture of a recovery taking place, even as late as April of that year. Subsequent months’ figures then trended sharply upwards before reversing course and falling back through 2021, 2022 and 2023.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has released the latest figures from April and they show total residential approvals declined by 0.3% over the month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The fall contrasted with the 1.5% gain which had been generally expected as well as March’s 2.7% rise after revisions. Total approvals rose by 3.5% on an annual basis, a turnaround from the previous month’s revised figure of -1.1%. Monthly growth rates are often volatile.

“Overall, the April dwelling approvals update was unremarkable, confirming that new dwelling investment will remain weak, particularly once backlogged projects start to complete,” said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan. “The low level of new dwelling approvals is particularly stark when compared to the strongly rising population.”

Short-term Commonwealth Government bond yields moved a touch higher on the day while longer-term yields moved up moderately. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had crept up 1bp to 4.08% while 10-year and 20-year yields both finished 4bps higher at 4.45% and 4.75% respectively.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding rate cuts in the next twelve months remained largely unchanged.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.315% through June and 4.35% in August. November contracts implied 4.375%, February 2025 contracts implied 4.335% while May 2025 contracts implied 4.24%, 8bps less than the current cash rate.

Not all economists’ outlooks were quite as pessimistic as Westpac’s Hassan. “We expect building approvals pick-up later this year as housing prices rise and labour shortages ease,” said ANZ senior economist Blair Chapman.

Approvals for new houses slipped by 1.0% over the month, in contrast with March’s 3.8% rise after revisions. On a 12-month basis, house approvals were 9.4% higher than they were in March 2023, up from the previous month’s comparable figure of 7.6%.                                         

Apartment approval figures are usually a lot more volatile and April approvals for this category rose by 1.1% after a 0.4% rise in March. The 12-month growth rate rose from March’s revised rate of -16.1% to -7.5%.

Non-residential approvals decreased by 4.6% in dollar terms over the month and were 21.3% lower on an annual basis. Figures in this segment also tend to be rather volatile.

Residential alteration approvals rose by 0.4% in dollar terms over the month and were 12.5% higher than in April 2023.

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March quarter capex up 1.0%; continued moderate growth expected

30 May 2024

Summary: Private capital expenditures up 1.0% in March; slightly above expected figure; up 5.5% on annual basis; Westpac: machinery & equipment meets expectations, buildings & structures softer than anticipated; ACGB yields up; cash rate expectations largely unchanged; Westpac: business investment helping ease capacity constraints in some sectors; 2023/24 capex estimate 2.5% higher than previous estimate, 11.0% higher than comparable estimate from 2022/23; ANZ: suggests moderate growth in business investment this financial year.

Australia’s private capital expenditure (capex) spiked early in the 2010s on the back of investment in the mining sector. As projects were completed, capex growth rates fell away and generally remained negative for a good part of a decade. Capex as a percentage of GDP is now back to a level more in line with the long-term average.

According to the latest ABS figures, seasonally-adjusted private sector capex in the March quarter increased by 1.0%. The result was slightly above the 0.7% increase which had been generally expected as well as the December quarter’s revised figure of 0.9%. On a year-on-year basis, total capex increased by 5.5%, down from 8.1% in the previous quarter after revisions.

“While machinery and equipment met our expectations, buildings and structures was softer than we anticipated,” said Westpac senior economist Pat Bustamante. “Non-mining capex grew 3.3% in the quarter, well above the pre- pandemic average quarterly growth of around 0.5%. This was partly offset by a 4.7% fall in mining capex.”

Short-term Commonwealth Government bond yields moved a touch higher on the day while longer-term yields moved up moderately. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had crept up 1bp to 4.08% while 10-year and 20-year yields both finished 4bps higher at 4.45% and 4.75% respectively.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding rate cuts in the next twelve months remained largely unchanged.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.315% through June and 4.35% in August. November contracts implied 4.375%, February 2025 contracts implied 4.335% while May 2025 contracts implied 4.24%, 8bps less than the current cash rate.

“Businesses, who had to put investment spending on hold in the pandemic and struggled once again to expand capacity during various post-COVID supply shocks, still see a need to build their capital stocks,” said Westpac senior economist Pat Bustamante. “This is helping ease capacity constraints in some sectors, where reported capacity utilisation levels remain above average.”

The report also contains capex estimates for the current financial year. The latest capex estimate for the 2023/24 financial year, Estimate 6, is $180.6 billion, 2.5% higher than February’s Estimate 5 and 11.0% higher than Estimate 6 of the 2022/23 financial year.

“These data are in nominal terms, so a reasonable part of nominal growth will be deflated away by increases in capital goods prices and construction costs,” said ANZ senior economist Blair Chapman. “Still, it suggests moderate growth in business investment this financial year.”

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“Widespread weakness”; March quarter construction spending down 2.9%

29 May 2024

Summary: Construction spending down 2.9%, contrasts with expected rise; up 1.8% from March 2023 quarter; ANZ: weakness widespread; ACGB yields increase; rate-cut expectations soften; Westpac: weakness in part reflects shifting volatility rather than signalling broad-based downturn; residential sector down 1.2%, non-residential building down 7.0%, engineering down 2.1%.

Construction expenditure increased substantially in Australia in the early part of last decade following a more-steady expansion through the 2000s. A large portion of the increase came from the commissioning of new projects and the expansion of existing ones to exploit a tripling in price of Australia’s mining exports in the previous decade.

According to the latest construction figures published by the ABS, total construction in the March quarter decreased by 2.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The result contrasted with 0.5% increase which had been generally expected as well as the December quarter’s 1.8% increase after revisions. On an annual basis, the growth rate slowed from 9.3% to 1.8%.

“Weakness in construction work done was widespread in the quarter,” said ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch. “The public/private sector split across the data implies, however, less of an impact to our GDP forecasts than the headline numbers would suggest.”

Domestic Treasury bond yields rose nearly uniformly across the curve on the day following the release of April CPI figures and significant rises of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had increased by 12bps to 4.07%, the 10-year yield had gained 14bps to 4.41% while the 20-year yield finished 13bps higher at 4.71%.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding rate cuts in the next twelve months softened considerably, although the catalyst was more likely the release of April’s CPI figures.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.315% through June and 4.35% in August. November contracts implied 4.36%, February 2025 contracts implied 4.32% while May 2025 contracts implied 4.235%, 9bps less than the current cash rate.

“The ABS have been consistently highlighting shifting seasonal patterns in the Labour Force Survey and it is possible that this is also impacting the construction industry,” said Westpac senior economist Pat Bustamante. “This would imply that the weakness in today’s number in part reflects this shifting volatility rather than signalling a broad-based downturn in activity.”

Residential building construction expenditures decreased by 1.2%, a smaller decline than the 4.1% fall in the December quarter after revisions. On an annual basis, expenditure in this segment was 2.8% lower than the March 2023 quarter, down from the December quarter’s 1.8% decrease.

Non-residential building spending decreased by 7.0%, in contrast with from the previous quarter’s 6.8% rise. On an annual basis, expenditures were 0.9% lower than the March 2023 quarter, whereas the December quarter’s comparable figure was +12.0% after revisions.

Engineering construction decreased by 2.1% in the quarter, in contrast with the 3.6% rise in the previous quarter. On an annual basis, spending in this segment was 6.2% higher than the March 2023 quarter, down from the December quarter’s comparable figure of 16.3% after revisions.

Quarterly construction data compiled and released by the ABS are not considered to be of a “primary” nature, unlike unemployment (Labour Force) and inflation (CPI) figures. However, the figures are viewed by economists and analysts with interest as they directly feed into quarterly GDP figures which are next due in early June.

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Stabilising at trend growth; Westpac-MI leading index rises in April

29 May 2024

Summary: Leading index growth rate up in April; main negatives over last two years starting to dissipate; reading implies annual GDP growth of around 2.50%-2.75%; ACGB yields rise; rate-cut expectations soften; Stage 3 tax cuts to provide additional relief for household  incomes.

Westpac and the Melbourne Institute describe their Leading Index as a composite measure which attempts to estimate the likely pace of Australian economic growth in the short-term. After reaching a peak in early 2018, the index trended lower through 2018 and 2019 before plunging to recessionary levels in the second quarter of 2020. Subsequent readings spiked towards the end of 2020 but then trended lower through 2021 and 2022 before flattening out in 2023.

April’s reading has now been released and the six month annualised growth rate of the indicator registered -0.01%, up from March’s revised figure of -0.08%.

“The Leading Index is again showing signs of some stabilisation in growth momentum,” said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan. “That is broadly consistent with the notion that the main negatives over the last two years, the combined drag on household incomes from sharply higher living costs, interest rate rises and a surging tax take, are starting to dissipate.”

Index figures represent rates relative to “trend” GDP growth, which is generally thought to be around 2.50% to 2.75% per annum in Australia. The index is said to lead GDP by “three to nine months into the future” but the highest correlation between the index and actual GDP figures occurs with a three-month lead. The current reading is thus indicative of an annual GDP growth rate of around 2.50% to 2.75% in the next quarter

Domestic Treasury bond yields rose nearly uniformly across the curve on the day following the release of April CPI figures and significant rises of US Treasury yields on Tuesday night. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had increased by 12bps to 4.07%, the 10-year yield had gained 14bps to 4.41% while the 20-year yield finished 13bps higher at 4.71%.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding rate cuts in the next twelve months softened considerably, although the catalyst was more likely the release of April’s CPI figures.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.315% through June and 4.35% in August. November contracts implied 4.36%, February 2025 contracts implied 4.32% while May 2025 contracts implied 4.235%, 9bps less than the current cash rate.

“The last six months has already seen a material moderation in inflation and the end to the RBA’s rapid series of interest rate rises,” Hassan added. “Coming months will see the Stage 3 tax cuts provide additional relief for household  incomes, a prospect that is already supporting consumer sentiment a little.”

Westpac is currently GDP growth to be 1.6% in calendar 2024, rising to 2.5% in calendar 2025. The RBA’s May Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts GDP growth for the years ending December 2024 and December 2025 to be 1.6% and 2.3% respectively.

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Conf. Board sentiment index rises in May; expectations index still signalling recession

28 May 2024

Summary: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index up in May, well above expected; Expectations Index below 80, usually signals recession ahead; US Treasury yields increase; expectations of Fed rate cuts soften; consumers cite food, groceries prices as having greatest impact on their view of US economy; views of present conditions, short-term outlook both improve.

US consumer confidence clawed its way back to neutral over the five years after the GFC in 2008/2009 and then went from strength to strength until late 2018. Measures of consumer confidence then oscillated within a relatively narrow band at historically high levels until they plunged in early 2020. Subsequent readings then fluctuated around the long-term average until March 2021 when they returned to elevated levels. However, a noticeable gap has since emerged between the two most-widely followed surveys.

The latest Conference Board survey held during the first three weeks of May indicated US consumer confidence has improved after deteriorating for the previous three months. May’s Consumer Confidence Index registered 102.0 on a preliminary basis, well above the generally-expected figure of 96.0 and April’s final figure of 97.5 after revisions.

“Despite this improvement, for the fourth consecutive month, the Expectations Index was below 80, the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. 

Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose moderately on the day while long-term yields increased more noticeably. By the close of business, the 2-year Treasury bond yield had added 3bps to 4.98%, the 10-year yield had gained 8bps to 4.55% while the 30-year finished 10bps higher at 4.67%.

In terms of US Fed policy, expectations of a lower federal funds rate in the next 12 months softened, although at least two 25bp cuts are still currently factored in. At the close of business, contracts implied the effective federal funds rate would average 5.33% in June, in line with the current spot rate, 5.33% in July and 5.265% in September. May 2025 contracts implied 4.76%, 57bps less than the current rate.

“According to May’s write-in responses, consumers cited prices, especially for food and groceries, as having the greatest impact on their view of the US economy,” Peterson added. “Notably, average 12-month inflation expectations ticked up from 5.3% to 5.4%. Perhaps as a consequence, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the year ahead also rose, from 55.2% to 56.2%.”.

Consumers’ views of present conditions and their views of the near-future both improved. The Present Situation Index increased from April’s revised figure of 140.6 to 143.1 while the Expectations Index moved up from 68.8 to 74.6.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is one of two widely followed monthly US consumer sentiment surveys which produce sentiment indices. The Conference Board’s index is based on perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as respondents’ expectations of conditions six months in the future. The other survey, conducted by the University of Michigan, is similar and it is used to produce an Index of Consumer Sentiment. That survey differs in that it does not ask respondents explicitly about their views of the labour market and it also includes some longer-term questions.

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“Flatlining”; April retail sales up just 0.1%

28 May 2024

Summary: Retail sales up 0.1% in April, slightly less than expected; up 1.3% on 12-month basis; ANZ: sales little changed over past 3 months; ACGB yields decline; rate-cut expectations soften; Westpac: sales flatlining in nominal terms, implies continued declines in inflation-adjusted sales; largest influence on result from “other” category, food sales.

Growth figures of domestic retail sales spent most of the 2010s at levels below the post-1992 average. While economic conditions had been generally favourable, wage growth and inflation rates were low. Expenditures on goods then jumped in the early stages of 2020 as government restrictions severely altered households’ spending habits. Households mostly reverted to their usual patterns as restrictions eased in the latter part of 2020 and throughout 2021.

According to the latest ABS figures, total retail sales rose by just 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April. The rise was slightly less than the 0.2% increase which had been generally expected but in contrast with March’s 0.4% fall. Sales increased by 1.3% on an annual basis, up from 0.9% after revisions.

“This follows a decline of 0.4% in March and an increase of 0.2% in February, leaving retail sales little changed over the past three months,” said ANZ senior economist Blair Chapman.

Commonwealth Government bond yields declined across the curve on the day. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had slipped 1bp to 3.95%, the 10-year yield had lost 2bps to 4.27% while the 20-year yield finished 3bps lower at 4.58%.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding rate cuts in the next twelve months softened.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.32% through June and 4.34% in August. November contracts implied 4.305%, February 2025 contracts implied 4.245% while May 2025 contracts implied 4.13%, 19bps less than the current cash rate.

“Retail sales are flatlining in nominal terms, implying continued declines in real, inflation adjusted sales and material falls in per-capita terms,” said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan. “The July tax cuts look set to be the most promising timing for any eventual lift, although even here prospects look fairly muted.”

Retail sales are typically segmented into six categories (see below), with the “Food” segment accounting for 40% of total sales. However, the largest influences on the month’s total came from the “Other” segment where sales rose by 1.6%. “Food” sales had nearly as large an effect, albeit in the opposite direction, after sales fell by 0.5%.

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German economy holding recent gains; ifo index steady in May

27 May 2024

Summary: ifo business climate index steady in May, slightly less than expected; German economy working its way out of crisis step by step; current conditions index down, expectations index up; German, French 10-year yields down; Westpac: result disappointing but encouraging improvement since start of 2024 preserved; expectations index implies euro-zone GDP contraction of 0.3% in year to August.

Following recessions in euro-zone economies in 2009/2010, the ifo Institute’s Business Climate Index largely ignored the European debt-crisis of 2010-2012, mostly posting average-to-elevated readings through to early-2020. However, the index was quick to react in the March 2020 survey, falling precipitously before recovering quickly in subsequent months. Readings through much of 2021 generally fluctuated around the long-term average before dropping away in 2022.

According to the latest report released by ifo, German business sentiment remained unchanged after three consecutive months of improvement. May’s Business Climate Index posted a reading of 89.3, slightly below the generally expected figure of 90.0 but in line with April’s final reading. The average reading since January 2005 is just over 96.

“The manufacturing, trade, and construction sectors are recovering, although the service sector took a slight hit,” said Clemens Fuest, President of the ifo Institute. “Germany’s economy is working its way out of the crisis step by step.”

German firms’ views of current conditions deteriorated while their collective outlook improved. The current situation index decreased from April’s figure of 88.9 to 88.3 while the expectations index increased from 89.7 after revisions to 90.4.

German and French long-term bond yields finished lower on the day. By the close of business, the German 10-year yield had lost 3bps to 2.55% while the French 10-year yield finished 4bps lower at 3.03%.

“Although the headline result disappointed, it’s encouraging that the improvement in sentiment over the start of 2024 has been preserved,” said Westpac economist Jameson Coombs.

The ifo Institute’s business climate index is a composite index which combines German companies’ views of current conditions with their outlook for the next six months. It has similarities to consumer sentiment indices in the US such as the ones produced by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan.                            

It also displays a solid correlation with euro-zone GDP growth rates. However, the expectations index is a better predictor as it has a higher correlation when lagged by one quarter. May’s expectations index implies a 0.3% year-on-year GDP contraction to the end of August.  

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Creeping higher: euro-zone household sentiment improves again in May

23 May 2024

Summary: Euro-zone consumer sentiment improves slightly again in May, index a touch less than expected; consumer confidence index still substantially below long-term average; Westpac: index at its least-pessimistic level since early 2022; euro-zone bond yields rise moderately.

EU consumer confidence plunged during the GFC and again in 2011/12 during the European debt crisis. After bouncing back through 2013 and 2014, it fell back significantly in late 2018 but only to a level which corresponds to significant optimism among households. Following the plunge which took place in April 2020, a recovery began a month later, with household confidence returning to above-average levels from March 2021. However, readings subsequent to early 2022 were extremely low by historical standards until recently.

Consumer confidence improved a little more in May according to the latest survey conducted by the European Commission. Its Consumer Confidence Indicator recorded a reading of -14.3, a touch below the generally expected figure of -14.2 but up from April’s reading of -14.7. This latest reading is still substantially below the long-term average of -10.4 and just above the lower bound of the range in which “normal” readings usually occur.

“While still well below pre-pandemic averages, confidence is sitting at its least-pessimistic [level] since early 2022,” said Westpac economist Jameson Coombs.

Sovereign bond yields in major euro-zone bond markets rose moderately on the day. By the close of business, German and French 10-year bond yields had both gained 5bps to 2.59% and 3.08% respectively.

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Current condition, rate-rise fears prolong consumer pessimism in May

21 May 2024

Summary: Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index down again in May; cost-of-living pressures, inflation concerns more than offsets relatively well-received Federal Budget; ACGB yields rise modestly; rate-cut expectations soften; expectations improve, overshadowed by deterioration in current conditions, fears of further rate rises; two of five sub-indices lower; more respondents expecting higher jobless rate.

After a lengthy divergence between measures of consumer sentiment and business confidence in Australia which began in 2014, confidence readings of the two sectors converged again in mid-July 2018. Both measures then deteriorated gradually in trend terms, with consumer confidence leading the way. Household sentiment fell off a cliff in April 2020 but, after a few months of to-ing and fro-ing, it then staged a full recovery. However, consumer sentiment has languished at pessimistic levels since mid-2022 while business sentiment has been more robust.

According to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey conducted over four days in the middle of May, household sentiment remains at a pessimistic level.  Their Consumer Sentiment Index declined from April’s reading of 82.4 to 82.2, a reading which is significantly lower than the long-term average reading of just over 101 and well below the “normal” range.

“Renewed cost-of-living pressures and inflation concerns have more than offset what looks to have been a relatively well received Federal Budget,” said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan. “Consumer sentiment remains deeply pessimistic.”

Any reading of the Consumer Sentiment Index below 100 indicates the number of consumers who are pessimistic is greater than the number of consumers who are optimistic.

Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly along the curve on the day, somewhat in line with overnight movements of US Treasury yields. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had added 2bps to 3.89%, the 10-year yield had crept up 1bp to 4.26% while the 20-year yield finished 2bps higher at 4.57%.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding rate cuts in the next twelve months softened.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.31% through June and 4.33% in August. However, November contracts implied 4.275%, February 2025 contracts implied 4.195% while May 2025 contracts implied 4.055%, 26bps less than the current cash rate.

“While expectations improved a touch in May, this was overshadowed by a further deterioration in current

conditions and fears that persistently high inflation may require further interest rate rises,” added Hassan. ”Importantly, the sentiment level and mix, and responses to additional questions about July’s tax cuts point to continued spending restraint by consumers heading into the second half of the year.”

Two of the five sub-indices registered lower readings, with the “Family finances versus a year ago” sub-index posting the largest monthly percentage loss.

The Unemployment Expectations index, formerly a useful guide to RBA rate changes, increased from 124.6 to 129.8, just over the long-term average. Higher readings result from more respondents expecting a higher unemployment rate in the year ahead.

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No US recession, just serious headwinds; CB April leading index falls continue

17 May 2024

Summary: Conference Board leading index down 0.6% in April, worse than expected; change driven by business conditions, weaker new orders, yield spread, drop in new building permits, stock prices; US Treasury yields rise; rate-cut expectations soften; no longer signalling recession, still points to headwinds for growth ahead; regression analysis implies 0.4% contraction in year to July.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index composed of ten sub-indices which are thought to be sensitive to changes in the US economy. The Conference Board describes it as an index which attempts to signal growth peaks and troughs; turning points in the index have historically occurred prior to changes in aggregate economic activity. Readings from March and April of 2020 signalled “a deep US recession” while subsequent readings indicated the US economy would recover rapidly. Readings post-2022 implied US GDP growth rates would turn negative but that has not been the case so far.

The latest reading of the LEI indicates it decreased by 0.6% in April. The fall was worse than the 0.3% decline which had been generally expected as well as March’s figure of -0.3%.

“Deterioration in consumers’ outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a negative yield spread and a drop in new building permits fuelled April’s decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica of The Conference Board. “In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October of last year.”

US Treasury bond yields rose moderately across the curve on the day. By the close of business, the 2-year Treasury yield had added 3bps to 4.83%, the 10-year yield had gained 4bps to 4.42% while the 30-year yield finished 5bp higher at 4.56%.

In terms of US Fed policy, expectations of a lower federal funds rate in the next 12 months softened, although at least three 25bps cuts are still currently factored in. At the close of business, contracts implied the effective federal funds rate would average 5.32% in June, a touch less than the current spot rate, 5.31% in July and 5.205% in September. May 2025 contracts implied 4.57%, 76bps less than the current rate.

“While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead,” added Zabinska-La Monica. “Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that real GDP growth will slow to under 1% over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.”

Regression analysis suggests the latest reading implies a -0.4% year-on-year growth rate in July, unchanged from the year to June growth rate after revisions.

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