News

US industrial output flat in April, down 0.4% over year

16 May 2024

US industrial output flat in April, less than expected; down 0.4% over past 12 months; Westpac: manufacturing, 80% of total, down 0.3%; US Treasury yields rise; rate-cut expectations soften; capacity utilisation rate slips to 78.4%.

The Federal Reserve’s industrial production (IP) index measures real output from manufacturing, mining, electricity and gas company facilities located in the United States. These sectors are thought to be sensitive to consumer demand and so some leading indicators of GDP use industrial production figures as a component. US production collapsed through March and April of 2020 before recovering the ground lost over the fifteen months to July 2021. However, production levels has largely stagnated since early 2022.

According to the Federal Reserve, US industrial production remained unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis in April. The flat result was in less than the 0.2% increase which had been generally expected as well as March’s 0.1% rise after it was revised down from 0.4%. On an annual basis the growth rate went into reverse, moving from March’s revised figure of 0.1% to -0.4%.

“Manufacturing output, which makes up around 80% of total production, fell 0.3% over the month of April,” said Westpac senior economist Pat Bustamante.

Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose noticeably on the day with longer-term yields rising by smaller amounts out along the curve. By the close of business, the 2-year Treasury yield had gained 8bps to 4.80%, the 10-year yield had added 4bps to 4.38% while the 30-year yield finished 1bp higher at 4.51%.

In terms of US Fed policy, expectations of a lower federal funds rate in the next 12 months softened, although at least three 25bps cuts are still currently factored in. At the close of business, contracts implied the effective federal funds rate would average 5.32% in June, a touch less than the current spot rate, 5.31% in July and 5.20% in September. May 2025 contracts implied 4.54%, 79bps less than the current rate.

The same report includes capacity utilisation figures which are generally accepted as an indicator of future investment expenditure and/or inflationary pressures. Capacity usage hit a high for the last business cycle in early 2019 before it began a downtrend which ended with April 2020’s multi-decade low of 64.2%. April’s reading slipped by 0.1 percentage points to 78.4%, 1.7 percentage points below the long-term average.

While the US utilisation rate’s correlation with the US jobless rate is solid, it is not as high as the comparable correlation in Australia.

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Flat US retail sales in April; demand, inflation pressures “moderating”

15 May 2024

Summary: US retail sales flat in April, less than expected; annual growth rate slows to 3.0%; ANZ: indicates moderation in demand, inflationary pressures; US Treasury yields fall significantly; rate-cut expectations firm; higher sales in seven of thirteen categories; petrol station sales largest single influence on month’s result.

US retail sales had been trending up since late 2015 but, commencing in late 2018, a series of weak or negative monthly results led to a drop-off in the annual growth rate below 2.0%. Growth rates then increased in trend terms through 2019 and into early 2020 until pandemic restrictions sent them into negative territory. A “v-shaped” recovery then took place which was followed by some short-term spikes as federal stimulus payments hit US households in 2021. However, growth rates have slowed significantly since mid-2022.

According to the latest “advance” numbers released by the US Census Bureau, total retail sales remained unchanged after rounding in April. The result was less than the 0.4% increase which had been generally expected as well as March’s 0.6% gain after it was revised down from 0.7%. On an annual basis, the growth rate slowed from March’s revised rate of 3.8% to 3.0%.

“The major April US economic releases indicate a moderation in demand and inflationary pressures at the start of Q2,” said ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch. “The labour market is continuing to move back towards balance, April control group retail sales have fallen in three of the first four months of this year and April super-core inflation was the lowest so far in 2024.”

US Treasury bond yields fell significantly across the curve on the day. By the close of business, 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields had both shed 10bps to 4.72% and 4.34% respectively while the 30-year yield finished 9bps lower at 4.50%.

In terms of US Fed policy, expectations of a lower federal funds rate in the next 12 months firmed a little, with at least three 25bp cuts currently factored in. At the close of business, contracts implied the effective federal funds rate would average 5.32% in June, a touch less than the current spot rate, 5.315% in July and 5.185% in September. May 2025 contracts implied 4.465%, 86bps less than the current rate.

Seven of the thirteen categories recorded higher sales over the month. The “Gasoline stations” segment provided the largest single influence on the overall result, rising by 3.1% over the month and contributing 0.24 percentage points to the total.  “Non-store retailer” sales also had a large effect on the total, with a 1.2% fall deducting 0.21 percentage points.

The non-store segment includes vending machine sales, door-to-door sales and mail-order sales but nowadays this segment has become dominated by online sales. It accounts for around 17% of all US retail sales and it is the second-largest segment after vehicles and parts.

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Housing costs yet again main driver of US inflation; April CPI up 0.3%

15 May 2024

Summary: US CPI up 0.4% in April, less than expected; annual inflation rate slows from 3.5% to 3.4%; “core” rate also up 0.3%, up 3.6% over year; Westpac: housing costs continue as one of main drivers of US inflation; Treasury yields fall significantly; rate-cut expectations firm; prices of non-energy services main driver again.

The annual rate of US inflation as measured by changes in the consumer price index (CPI) halved from nearly 3% in the period from July 2018 to February 2019. It then fluctuated in a range from 1.5% to 2.0% through 2019 before rising above 2.0% in the final months of that year. Substantially lower rates were reported from March 2020 to May 2020 and they remained below 2% until March 2021. Rates then rose significantly before declining from mid-2022.

The latest US CPI figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated seasonally-adjusted consumer prices rose by 0.3% on average in April. The increase was less than the 0.4% which had been generally expected as well as March’s 0.4% rise. On a 12-month basis, the inflation rate slowed from 3.5% to 3.4%.

“Headline” inflation is known to be volatile and so references are often made to “core” inflation for analytical purposes. The core prices index, the index which excludes the more variable food and energy components, also increased by 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis over the month, in line with consensus expectations. The annual growth rate slowed from March’s revised rate of 3.8% to 3.6%.

“It was worth noting that the April inflation data revealed shelter inflation remained high at 5.5% on an annual basis and the monthly increase stayed steady at 0.4%,” said Westpac Business Bank Chief Economist Besa Deda. “Housing costs continue to be one of the main drivers of inflation in the US.”

US Treasury bond yields fell significantly across the curve on the day. By the close of business, 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields had both shed 10bps to 4.72% and 4.34% respectively while the 30-year yield finished 9bps lower at 4.50%.

In terms of US Fed policy, expectations of a lower federal funds rate in the next 12 months firmed a little, with at least three 25bp cuts currently factored in. At the close of business, contracts implied the effective federal funds rate would average 5.32% in June, a touch less than the current spot rate, 5.315% in July and 5.185% in September. May 2025 contracts implied 4.465%, 86bps less than the current rate.

The largest influence on headline results is often the change in fuel prices. Prices of “Energy commodities”, the segment which contains vehicle fuels, increased by 2.7% and contributed 0.10 percentage points to the total. However, prices of non-energy services, the segment which includes actual and implied rents, again had the largest effect on the total, adding 0.24 percentage points after increasing by 0.4% on average.  

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April US PPI figures exceed expectations; March figures revised down

14 May 2024

Summary: US producer price index (PPI) up 0.5% in April, more than expected; annual rate accelerates to 2.2%; “core” PPI up 0.5% over month, up 2.4% over year; Westpac: sizeable downside revision to previous month, supportive of further disinflation; US Treasury yields fall; rate-cut expectations firm; services prices up 0.6%, goods prices up 0.4%.

Around the end of 2018, the annual inflation rate of the US producer price index (PPI) began a downtrend which continued through 2019. Months in which producer prices increased suggested the trend may have been coming to an end, only for it to continue, culminating in a plunge in April 2020. Figures returned to “normal” towards the end of that year but then moved well above the long-term average in 2021 and 2022 before falling back over 2023.

The latest figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate producer prices increased by 0.5% in April after seasonal adjustments. The result was more than the 0.3% increase which had been generally expected as well as March’s -0.1% after it was revised down from 0.2%. On a 12-month basis, the rate of producer price inflation after seasonal adjustments and revisions accelerated from March’s revised figure of 1.8% to 2.2%.

Producer prices excluding foods and energy, or “core” PPI, were also up 0.5% after seasonal adjustments. The result was greater than the 0.2% increase which had been generally expected and in contrast with March’s 0.1% decline after revisions. The annual growth rate accelerated from 2.1% to 2.4%, although it is worth noting March’s rate was revised down from 2.4%.

“An upside headline surprise in producer price inflation was tempered by a sizeable downside revision to the previous month and more constructive underlying detail,” said Westpac economist Jameson Coombs. “Overall the data was supportive of further disinflation and did little to move the dial on expectations for further inflation progress in tonight’s US consumer price inflation report.”

US Treasury bond yields fell moderately along the curve on the day. By the close of business, the 2-year Treasury yield had lost 4bps to 4.82%, the 10-year yield had shed 5bps to 4.44% while the 30-year yield finished 4bps lower at 4.59%.

In terms of US Fed policy, expectations of a lower federal funds rate in the next 12 months firmed a little, with three 25bp cuts currently factored in. At the close of business, contracts implied the effective federal funds rate would average 5.32% in June, a touch less than the current spot rate, 5.315% in July and 5.20% in September. May 2025 contracts implied 4.57%, 76bps less than the current rate.

The BLS stated 75% of the rise of the index was attributable to a 0.6% increase in services prices. The final demand goods index increased by 0.4%.

The producer price index is a measure of prices received by producers for domestically produced goods, services and construction. It is put together in a fashion similar to the consumer price index (CPI) except it measures prices received from the producer’s perspective rather than from the perspective of a retailer or a consumer. It is another one of the various measures of inflation tracked by the US Fed, along with core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data. 

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“Signs of slowing activity” in NAB’s April business indices

13 May 2024

Summary: Business conditions decline in April; business confidence steady, below average; signs of slowing activity, easing costs support outlook for gradual improvement in inflation; ACGB yields a little higher; rate-cut expectations firm a touch; Westpac: conditions to remain challenging in first half of 2024, followed by gradual recovery in second half; capacity utilisation rate unchanged, still at elevated level.

NAB’s business survey indicated Australian business conditions were robust in the first half of 2018, with a cyclical-peak reached in April of that year. Readings from NAB’s index then began to slip and forecasts of a slowdown in the domestic economy began to emerge in the first half of 2019 as the index trended lower. It hit a nadir in April 2020 as pandemic restrictions were introduced but then improved markedly over the next twelve months and has subsequently remained at robust levels.

According to NAB’s latest monthly business survey of around 400 firms conducted in the last two weeks of April, business conditions declined to a level which is just above the long-term average. NAB’s conditions index registered 7 points, down 2 points from March’s reading.

Business confidence remained steady.  NAB’s confidence index was unchanged at 1 point, a reading which is below the long-term average.  Typically, NAB’s confidence index leads the conditions index by one month, although some divergences have appeared from time to time.

“Overall, these signs of slowing activity and easing costs support the outlook for gradual improvement in inflation from here, but how quickly this occurs remains to be seen,” said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster.

Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally moved a little higher, lagging the rises of US Treasury yields on Friday night (AEST). By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had returned to its starting point at 3.96%, the 10-year yield had crept up 1bp to 4.34% while the 20-year yield finished 2bps higher at 4.65%.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding rate cuts in the next twelve months firmed a touch.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.32% through June and 4.355% in August. November contracts implied 4.35% and February 2025 contracts implied 4.275%. However, May 2025 contracts implied 4.16%, 16bps less than the current rate.

“From a big picture perspective, little has changed in April,” said Westpac senior economist Pat Bustamante. “Conditions continue to gradually trend lower but remain around long-run average levels, while businesses are still cautious about the future. 2024 is expected to be a year of two halves. While conditions remain challenging in the first half of the year, a gradual recovery is expected to take place from the second half of 2024, before picking up more pace into 2025.”

NAB’s measure of national capacity utilisation remained steady at 83.2%, a level which is still quite elevated from a historical perspective. Six of the eight sectors of the economy were reported to be operating at or above their respective long-run averages.

Capacity utilisation is generally accepted as an indicator of future investment expenditure and it also has a strong inverse relationship with Australia’s unemployment rate.

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“Suggestions of stagflation”; UoM sentiment index dives in May

10 May 2024

Summary: University of Michigan consumer confidence index falls in May, reading less than expected; views of present conditions, future conditions both deteriorate; decreases across age, income, education groups; Treasury yields rise; fed funds rate-cut expectations soften; Westpac: US economy losing momentum, uptick in inflation expectations prompts suggestions of stagflation.

US consumer confidence started 2020 at an elevated level but, after a few months, surveys began to reflect a growing unease with the global spread of COVID-19 and its reach into the US. Household confidence plunged in April 2020 and then recovered in a haphazard fashion, generally fluctuating at below-average levels according to the University of Michigan. The University’s measure of confidence had recovered back to the long-term average by April 2021 but then it plunged again in the September quarter and remained at historically low levels through 2022 and 2023.

The latest survey conducted by the University indicates confidence among US households has deteriorated significantly in May. The preliminary reading of the Index of Consumer Sentiment registered 67.4, considerably less than the 77.0 which had been generally expected and April’s final figure of 77.2.

Consumers’ views of current conditions and their views of future conditions both deteriorated relative to those held at the time of the April survey.

“This 10 index-point decline is statistically significant and brings sentiment to its lowest reading in about six months,” said the University’s Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. “This month’s trend in sentiment is characterized by a broad consensus across consumers, with decreases across age, income, and education groups.”

US Treasury bond yields increased moderately across the curve on the day. By the close of business, the 2-year yield had gained 5bps to 4.86%, the 10-year yield had added 4bps to 4.50% while the 30-year yield finished 3bps higher at 4.64%.

In terms of US Fed policy, expectations of a lower federal funds rate in the next 12 months softened, although nearly three 25bps cuts are currently factored in. At the close of business, contracts implied the effective federal funds rate would average 5.315% in June, a touch less than the current spot rate, 5.31% in July and 5.305% in September. However, May 2025 contracts implied 4.60%, 73bps less than the current rate.

“A sharp fall US consumer confidence added to evidence that the US economy is losing some momentum,” said Westpac economist Jameson Coombs. “However, an uptick in consumer inflation expectations complicated the picture, prompting suggestions of the risk of stagflation.”

It was once thought less-confident households are generally inclined to spend less and save more; some decline in household spending could be expected to follow. However, recent research suggests the correlation between household confidence and retail spending is quite weak.

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Job ads up in April, downtrend “stalls”

06 May 2024

Summary: Job ads up 2.8% in April; 6.6% lower than April 2023; ANZ: downward trend stalls; ACGB yields fall; rate-cut expectations sending mixed messages; ANZ: 78% of businesses in NAB’s business survey reported labour was constraint on output; ad index-to-workforce ratio rises.

From mid-2017 onwards, year-on-year growth rates in the total number of Australian job advertisements consistently exceeded 10%. That was until mid-2018 when the annual growth rate fell back markedly. 2019 was notable for its reduced employment advertising and this trend continued into the first quarter of 2020. Advertising then plunged in April and May of 2020 as pandemic restrictions took effect but recovered quite quickly, reaching historically-high levels in 2022.

According to the latest reading of the ANZ-Indeed Job Ads Index, total job advertisements in April increased by 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The index rose from 132.8 in March after revisions to 136.5, with the gain following a decline of 1.0% in March and  loss of 1.8% in February. On a 12-month basis, total job advertisements were 6.6% lower than in April 2023, up from March’s figure of -10.6%.

“2023’s downward trend in ANZ-Indeed Job Ads has stalled in 2024, at least for now,” said ANZ economist Madeline Dunk. “The series has risen 3.9% since its recent trough in November last year, and the three-month moving average has been steady over the past few months.”

The update was released on the same day as the Melbourne Institute’s latest Inflation Gauge reading and Commonwealth Government bond yields declined again, although not quite as much as the falls of US Treasury yields on Friday night (AEST) and with not much movement at the short end.. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had slipped 1bp to 4.02% while 10-year and 20-year yields both finished 4bps lower at 4.39% and 4.69% respectively.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding the cash rate changes over the next 12 months continued to send mixed messages.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.335% through May and 4.35% in June. However, November contracts implied a 4.42% average cash rate, February contracts implied 4.325%, while May 2025 contracts implied 4.22%.

“In Q1, 78% of businesses that responded to NAB’s business survey reported labour was a constraint on output,” Dunk added. “While this is down from the peak of 91% in Q3 2022, it is still well above the pre-pandemic average of 42% and aligns with what ANZ-Indeed Job Ads is telling us; that supply and demand imbalances in the labour market have yet to normalise.”

The inverse relationship between job advertisements and the unemployment rate has been quite strong (see below chart), although ANZ themselves called the relationship between the two series into question in early 2019. 

A higher job advertisement index as a proportion of the labour force is suggestive of lower unemployment rates in the near future while a lower ratio suggests higher unemployment rates will follow. April’s ad index-to-workforce ratio rose from 0.90 to 0.92.

In 2008/2009, advertisements plummeted and Australia’s unemployment rate jumped from 4% to nearly 6% over a period of 15 months. When a more dramatic fall in advertisements took place in April 2020, the unemployment rate responded much more quickly.

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April Melb. Institute inflation Gauge repeats March rise, up 3.7% over year

06 May 2024

Summary: Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge index up 0.1% in April; up 3.7% on annual basis; ACGB yields fall; rate-cut expectations sending mixed messages..

The Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Gauge is an attempt to replicate the ABS consumer price index (CPI) on a monthly basis. It has turned out to be a reliable leading indicator of the CPI, although there are periods in which the Inflation Gauge and the CPI have diverged for as long as twelve months. On average, the Inflation Gauge’s annual rate tends to overestimate the ABS rate by around 0.1%, or at least until recently.

The Melbourne Institute’s latest reading of its Inflation Gauge index indicates consumer prices increased by just 0.1% in April, the same rate as in March and in contrast with February’s 0.1% fall. The index rose by 3.7% on an annual basis, down slightly from March’s comparable figure of 3.8%.

The update was released on the same day as ANZ’s latest Job Ads report and Commonwealth Government bond yields declined again, although not quite as much as the falls of US Treasury yields on Friday night (AEST) and with not much movement at the short end.. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had slipped 1bp to 4.02% while 10-year and 20-year yields both finished 4bps lower at 4.39% and 4.69% respectively.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding the cash rate changes over the next 12 months continued to send mixed messages.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.335% through May and 4.35% in June. However, November contracts implied a 4.42% average cash rate, February contracts implied 4.325%, while May 2025 contracts implied 4.22%.

Central bankers desire a certain level of inflation which is “sufficiently low that it does not materially distort economic decisions in the community” but high enough so it does not constrain “a central bank’s ability to combat recessions.”

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US job market cooling in April; higher jobless rate, slowdown in hourly earnings

03 May 2024

Summary: US non-farm payrolls up 175,000 in April, below expectations; previous two months’ figures revised down by 22,000; Westpac: US labour market cooling; jobless rate ticks up to 3.9%, participation rate steady at 62.7%; US Treasury yields down; expectations of Fed rate cuts firm; employed-to-population ratio falls to 60.2%; underutilisation rate ticks up to 7.4%; annual hourly pay growth slows to 3.9%.

The US economy ceased producing jobs in net terms as infection controls began to be implemented in March 2020. The unemployment rate had been around 3.5% but that changed as job losses began to surge through March and April of 2020. The May 2020 non-farm employment report represented a turning point and subsequent months provided substantial employment gains which continued through into 2021, 2022 and 2023.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy created an additional 175,000 jobs in the non-farm sector in April. The increase was noticeably less than the 250,000 rise which had been generally expected and the 315,000 jobs which had been added in March. Employment figures for March and February were revised down by a total of 22,000.

“The non-farm payrolls report showed that hiring slowed in April, while a surprise up-tick in the unemployment rate and a welcomed slowdown in hourly earnings supported the view that the labour market is cooling,” said Westpac economist Jameson Coombs.  

The total number of unemployed increased by 63,000 to 6.492 million while the total number of people who were either employed or looking for work increased by 88,000 to 167.983 million. These changes led to the US unemployment rate ticking up from March’s figure of 3.8% to 3.9%. The participation rate remained steady at 62.7%.

US Treasury bond yields fell almost uniformly across the curve on the day. By the close of business, the 2-year yield had lost 6bps to 4.82%, the 10-year yield had shed 7bps to 4.51% while the 30-year yield finished 6bps lower at 4.67%.

In terms of US Fed policy, expectations of a lower federal funds rate in the next 12 months firmed, with several cuts currently factored in. At the close of business, contracts implied the effective federal funds rate would average 5.30% in July, 3bps lower than the current spot rate, 5.18% in September and 5.03% in November. However, May 2025 contracts implied 4.53%, 80bps less than the current rate.

One figure which is indicative of the “spare capacity” of the US employment market is the employment-to-population ratio. This ratio is simply the number of people in work divided by the total US population. It hit a cyclical-low of 58.2 in October 2010 before slowly recovering to just above 61% in late-2019. April’s reading slipped back from 60.3% to 60.2%, some way from the April 2000 peak reading of 64.7%.

Apart from the unemployment rate, another measure of tightness in the labour market is the underutilisation rate and the latest reading of it registered 7.4%, up from 7.3% in March. Wage inflation and the underutilisation rate usually have an inverse relationship; private hourly pay growth in the year to April slowed from 4.1% to 3.9%.

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Investors, larger loans behind home loan approvals in March

03 May 2024

Summary: Value of loan commitments up 3.1% in March, more than expected; 17.9% higher than March 2023; Westpac: to larger average loan sizes, investor activity becoming more-prominent driver of gains; ACGB yields down; cash rate expectations sending mixed messages; ANZ: likely to see loan sizes continue growing; value of owner-occupier loan approvals up 2.8%; investor approvals up 3.8%; number of owner-occupier home loan approvals up 2.4%.

The number and value of home-loan approvals began to noticeably increase after the RBA reduced its cash rate target in a series of cuts beginning in mid-2019, potentially ending the downtrend which had been in place since mid-2017. Figures from February through to May of 2020 provided an indication the downtrend was still intact but subsequent figures then pushed both back to record highs in 2021. However, there has been a considerable pullback since then, although the total value of new loans is still elevated by historical standards.

March’s housing finance figures have now been released and total loan approvals excluding refinancing increased by 3.1% In dollar terms over the month, more than the 1.0% rise which had been generally expected and up from February’s 1.9% increase after revisions. On a year-on-year basis, total approvals excluding refinancing were 17.9% higher than March 2023, up from the previous month’s comparable figure of 14.2%.

“Approvals have recovered strongly on a year ago, up 17.9% in value terms, although over half of this looks to be due to larger average loan sizes, for investor loans in particular,” said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan. “The detail also suggests investor activity is becoming a more prominent driver of gains, especially in WA but with the notable exception of Victoria.”

Commonwealth Government bond yields fell on the day, although not quite as much as the falls of US Treasury yields on Thursday night (AEST). By the close of business, 3-year and 10-year ACGB yields had both lost 3bps to 4.03% and 4.43% while the 20-year yield finished 1bp lower at 4.73%.

In the cash futures market, expectations regarding the cash rate changes over the next 12 months continued to send mixed messages.  At the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain close to the current rate for the next few months and average 4.33% through May and 4.345% in June. However, November contracts implied a 4.41% average cash rate, February contracts implied 4.33%, while May 2025 contracts implied 4.22%.

“Positive real wage growth and tax cuts starting should see borrowing capacity rise, which combined with continued housing price growth, is likely to see loan sizes continue growing,” said ANZ senior economist Blair Chapman.

The total value of owner-occupier loan commitments excluding refinancing increased by 2.8%, up from February’s 1.5%. On an annual basis, owner-occupier loan commitments were 11.4% higher than in March 2023, up from February’s comparable figure of 9.3%.

The total value of investor commitments excluding refinancing increased by 3.8%. The rise follows a 2.5% increase in February, taking the growth rate over the previous 12 months from 23.8% to 31.1%.

The total number of loan commitments to owner-occupiers excluding refinancing increased by 2.4% to 26352 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from the 1.5% increase in February. The annual growth rate accelerated from 5.9% after revisions to 6.8%.

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