The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute. The report provides an estimate of US non-farm employment based on payroll data. Since the report began to be published in 2006, its total private sector non-farm employment figures have exhibited a high correlation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll figures.
The figures for March indicate private sector employment grew by 128,000, well under the expected figure of 180,000 and considerably lower than February’s increase of 197,000.
Westpac described the figures as indicative of “a loss of hiring momentum” but US bond yields finished the day higher and market expectations of a rate cut at the FOMC’s December meeting slipped. 2-year bond yields finished 3bps higher at 2.33% while 10-year and 30-year yields had each increased by 5bps lower to 2.52% and 2.93% respectively. The probability of a December rate cut implied by federal funds futures slipped further from its late-March peak of 73% and finished the day at 57%.