The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute. The report provides an estimate of US non-farm employment in the private sector. Since the report began to be published in 2006, its total private sector non-farm employment figures have exhibited a high correlation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll figures which are typically published a day or two later.
The latest figures indicate private sector employment grew by 201,660 in December, well above the expected figure of 160,000 and almost double November’s revised increase of 124,000.
NAB economist Tapas Strickland described the figures as “still suggestive of a robust labour market.”
US Treasury yields increased along the curve. By the end of the day, 2-year Treasury bond yields had gained 3bps to 1.58% while 10-year and 30-year yields had each increased by 5bps to 1.87% and 2.36% respectively.
In terms of likely US monetary policy, according to federal funds futures contracts the probability of another rate cut at January’s FOMC meeting remained at zero. The implied likelihood of a 25bps cut at the March meeting also fell to zero, having been seen as a remote possibility at the end of the previous day.