The ADP National Employment Report is a monthly report which provides an estimate of US non-farm employment in the private sector. Since the report began to be published in 2006, its employment figures have exhibited a high correlation with official non-farm payroll figures, although a large difference can arise in any individual month. However, this latest report has a cut-off date which does not include a dramatic change which took place over the second half of March.
March’s report indicates private sector employment fell by 27,000, a smaller contraction than the -150,000 which had been expected but still a distinct reversal from February’s revised figure of +179,400.
ANZ economist Daniel Been noted the survey’s 12 March cut-off date and said “it’s not capturing the lockdowns, as is expected with non-farm payrolls on Friday.”
US Treasury yields fell across the curve. By the end of the day, the 2-year Treasury bond yield had shed 2bps to 0.21%, the 10-year yield had lost 8bps to 0.58% while the 30-year yield finished 11bps lower at 1.21%.
Employment numbers continued to grow in medium-sized and large-sized businesses but small business took a hit. Firms with less than 50 employees lost a net 90,000 positions but mid-sized firms (50-499 employees) added 7,000 positions and large businesses (500 or more employees) accounted for 56,000 additional positions.