The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute. The report provides an estimate of US non-farm employment based on payroll data. Since the report began to be published in 2006, its total private sector non-farm employment figures have exhibited a high correlation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll figures.
The latest April figures indicate private sector employment grew by 275,000, well above the expected figure of 180,000 and not quite double March’s revised increase of 151,400. Westpac’s Finance AM team described the figures as “well above expectations” while ANZ economist Kishti Sen said the figures, in conjunction with weekly initial jobless claims data, indicates “a strong NFP report” at the end of this week. However, the Westpac team noted the survey’s “chequered track record in predicting non-farm payrolls…”
US bond yields finished the day higher and market expectations of a rate cut were wound back. 2-year Treasury bond yields finished 5bps higher at 2.31%, the 10-year yield remained unchanged at 2.50% while 30-year yields had lost 3bps to 2.90%. The probability of a December rate cut implied by federal funds futures slipped a little further away from the heights reached at the beginning of May to finish the day at 61%.