Summary: Euro-zone industrial production up 1.0% in April, less than expected; annual growth rate increases from -1.4% to +0.2%; German, French 10-year yields move modestly higher; output expands in only one of four largest euro economies.
Following a recession in 2009/2010 and the debt-crisis which flowed from it, euro-zone industrial production recovered and then reached a peak four years later in 2016. Growth rates then fluctuated for two years before beginning a steady and persistent slowdown from the start of 2018. That decline was transformed into a plunge in March and April of 2020 which then took over a year to claw back. Production levels in recent quarters have generally stagnated in trend terms.
According to the latest figures released by Eurostat, euro-zone industrial production expanded by 1.0% in April on a seasonally-adjusted and calendar-adjusted basis. The result was less than the 1.2% expansion which had been generally expected but it contrasted with March’s 3.8% contraction. The calendar-adjusted growth rate on an annual basis increased from March’s rate of -1.4% to 0.2%.
German and French sovereign bond yields moved modestly higher on the day. By the close of business, German and French 10-year yields had both added 2bps to 2.47% and 2.98% respectively.
Industrial production expanded in just one of the euro-zone’s four largest economies. Germany’s production remained steady over the month while the comparable figures for France, Spain and Italy were +0.8%, -1.8% and -1.9% respectively.