Australian business conditions were robust in the first half of 2018, especially so in April when one index registered an all-time high. Readings then slipped back over the next couple of months but they still remained at above-average levels. While some other surveys recently suggested some weakening of demand in the business sector, NAB’s survey is still indicative of buoyant business conditions.
According to NAB’s latest monthly business survey of 400 firms conducted in the last week of September, business conditions remained at a very-healthy level. After revisions, the index crept up from a revised value of 14 at the end of August to 15 in September. NAB chief economist Alan Oster said, “Business conditions seem to have stabilised at high levels in recent months following some sharp falls earlier and the dip in confidence last month appears to have been temporary”.
Typically, NAB’s confidence index leads the conditions index by approximately one month, although in recent months the two surveys have diverged and the condition index has led the confidence index higher in trend terms since late 2014. After revisions, the confidence index inched up by 1 point to register 6 on the index in September, which is around the long-term average reading but still a little below most 2018 readings.