Conference Board expects US “shallow recession” in 2024

19 October 2023

 

Summary: Conference Board leading index down 0.7% in September, lower than expected; nine of index’s ten components negative; short-term US Treasury yields fall, long-term yields rise; rate-cut expectations firm; recession signal not sounded, shallow recession likely in first half of 2024; regression analysis implies 1.6% contraction in year to December. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index composed of ten sub-indices which are thought to be...

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