Conference Board leading index: US recession “increasingly likely before year-end”

20 October 2022

 

Summary: Conference Board leading index down 0.4% in September, lower than expected; suggests recession “increasingly likely before year-end”; Conference Board forecasts 1.5% GDP growth in 2022; regression analysis implies 0.8% US GDP growth to December. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index composed of ten sub-indices which are thought to be sensitive to changes in the US economy. The Conference Board describes it as an index...

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