Crown Notes reaction overdone: Bell Potter

24 October 2016

The fixed interest desk at Bell Potter think the sell-off in Crown Series 1 Notes (ASX code: ASXHA) which is part of the general sell-off in various Crown securities has been overdone. Nearly twenty Crown employees were detained in China recently in relation to gambling crimes and the company’s listed securities were hammered accordingly. In their opinion, the reaction on the Series 1 Notes appears to be have been an over-reaction. “Overall, the $3.60 decline in CWNHA from $100.20 to $96.60 appears excessive. Assuming redemption at the Sep 2018 call date, CWNHA is on a yield-to-call of 9.15%, where the discount to face value increases the 5.00% issue margin to a trading margin of 7.41%.  As part of their argument, they point to Crown’s November 2019 senior debt, which is trading on a fixed yield of 3.71% and a much slimmer 1.91% margin above the 3 year swap rate.