Summary: Payrolls and wages both decline in the week to 11 July; July employment growth unlikely to repeat June performance; payrolls and wages both down by around 5% in relation to start of pandemic restrictions; declines widespread and not limited to Victoria; layoffs likely as work projects end in coming months.
The ABS has released its latest payroll report containing new statistics on jobs and wages based on Single Touch Payroll data provided by the ATO. Job losses do not directly translate into additional unemployment; some people hold more than one job and the report’s figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The rate of weekly job losses remained at roughly the same pace through the first two weeks of July. Total payrolls decreased by 0.6%, the same rate as that of the previous week but they signalled a deterioration from the 0.2% decline at the end of June.
The total for wages for the week fell by 1.9%. The fall followed a 1.0% rise in the previous week and a 0.9% fall in the week before that.
Overall, the data suggest the strong employment rebound in the June labour force survey is very unlikely to be repeated,” said Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk.
Between the week ending 14 March 2020 and the week ending 11 July 2020, the total number of positions in Australia contracted by 5.6%. Total wages fell by 4.8% over the same 17 week period.
Long-term Commonwealth Government bond yields moved moderately higher, following US Treasury bond movements to some degree. By the end of the day, the 10-year yield had increased by 3bps to 0.94% while the 20-year yield finished 4bps higher at 1.55%. The 3-year ACGB yield remained unchanged at 0.31%, 6bps above the RBA’s target yield.
In the cash futures market, expectations of a change in the actual cash rate, currently at 0.13%, continued to remain low. By the end of the day, contracts implied the cash rate would remain in a range of 0.125% to 0.135% through to the latter part of 2021.