Summary: Euro-zone households less pessimistic in February; slightly below consensus expectation; still below long-term average; major euro-zone bond yields up moderately.
EU consumer confidence plunged during the GFC and again in 2011/12 during the European debt crisis. After bouncing back through 2013 and 2014, it fell back significantly in late 2018 but only to a level which corresponds to significant optimism among households. Following the plunge which took place in April 2020, a recovery of sorts began in May. More recent readings have generally stagnated at below-average levels.
The February survey conducted by the European Commission indicated its Consumer Confidence index increased to -14.8. The reading was slightly less than the -14.5 which had been generally expected but higher than January’s figure of -15.5. The average reading since the beginning of 1985 has been -11.7.
Sovereign bond yields increased in major European bond markets on the day. By the end of it, the German 10-year bund yield had gained 3bps to -0.34% while the French 10-year OAT bond yield finished 4bps higher at -0.08%.