Summary: Euro-zone industrial production up 1.0% in November, double expected figure; annual growth slows from 3.4% to 2.0%; German, French 10-year yields up modestly; expansion in two of four largest economies.
Following a recession in 2009/2010 and the debt-crisis which flowed from it, euro-zone industrial production recovered and then reached a peak four years later in 2016. Growth rates then fluctuated for two years before beginning a steady and persistent slowdown from the start of 2018. That decline was transformed into a plunge in March and April of 2020 which then took over a year to claw back. Production levels in more-recent months have generally stagnated in trend terms.
According to the latest figures released by Eurostat, euro-zone industrial production expanded by 1.0% in November on a seasonally-adjusted and calendar-adjusted basis. The increase was double the 0.5% which had been generally expected and in contrast with October’s 1.9% contraction after revisions. The calendar-adjusted growth rate on an annual basis slowed from October’s revised rate of +3.4% to +2.0%.
German and French sovereign bond yields moved modestly higher on the day. By the close of business, the German 10-year bund yield had added 2bps to 2.14% while the French 10-year OAT yield finished unchanged at 2.61%.
Industrial production expanded in two of the euro-zone’s four largest economies. Germany’s production increased by 0.6% over the month while the comparable figures for France, Spain and Italy were +2.1%, -0.7% and -0.3% respectively.