EU consumer confidence plunged during the GFC and again in 2011/12 during the European debt crisis. Since early 2014, it has been at average or above-average levels, rising to a cyclical peak at the beginning of 2018. Even after it dropped back significantly in late 2018 as doubts emerged over the US economy’s robustness, the index remained at a level which corresponds to significant optimism among households.
The February survey conducted by the European Commission indicated household confidence remained at robust levels. The latest published reading of its Consumer Confidence index recorded a figure of -6.6, higher than January’s final figure of -8.1 and well into above-average territory. The average reading since the beginning of 1985 has been -11.6.
ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said, “The dichotomy between domestic demand and industrial weakness continues.” While measures of consumer confidence have remained elevated, industrial production rates have deteriorated.