ANZ’s job advertisement survey is well-known as a leading indicator of employment numbers in Australia. As such, it is inversely related to the unemployment rate. ANZ’s survey reflects changes in demand for labour and it provides another measure of activity in the economy. There is also a fairly good inverse relationship between changes in Australia’s unemployment rates and changes in the RBA cash rate. Understanding the path of Australia’s unemployment rate has historically provided a reliable indicator of RBA rate changes.
From mid-2017 onwards, year-on-year growth rates in the total number of advertisements consistently exceeded 10%. That was until mid-2018 when the annual growth rate fell back markedly and then tracked lower for the remainder of 2018. Figures from the beginning of 2019 have continued that trend.
February’s figures have now been released and, after revisions and seasonal adjustments, total advertisements fell by 0.9% to 169,568. On a 12-month basis, total job advertisements shrank by 4.3%, a further deterioration from January’s comparable figure of -3.8% after revisions.
This latest fall comes on top of January’s 1.8% drop. ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics, David Plank said, “The year ahead looks to be more challenging on the employment front, with ANZ’s Australian Job Ads series declining for the fourth month in a row.”