Summary: Euro-zone industrial production up 0.9% in September, greater than expected; annual growth rate rises from 2.8% to 4.9%; German, French 10-year yields hardly move; expansion in just one of euro-zone’s four largest economies.
Following a recession in 2009/2010 and the debt-crisis which flowed from it, euro-zone industrial production recovered and then reached a peak four years later in 2016. Growth rates then fluctuated for two years before beginning a steady and persistent slowdown from the start of 2018. That decline was transformed into a plunge in March and April of 2020 which then took over a year to claw back. Production levels in more-recent months have generally stagnated.
According to the latest figures released by Eurostat, euro-zone industrial production expanded by 0.9% in September on a seasonally-adjusted and calendar-adjusted basis. The rise was greater than the 0.5% increase which had been generally expected but considerably less than August’s 2.0% gain after revisions. The calendar-adjusted growth rate on an annual basis increased from August’s revised rate of +2.8% to +4.9%.
German and French sovereign bond yields hardly moved on the day. By the close of business, the German 10-year bund yield had slipped 1bp to 2.15% while the French 10-year OAT yield finished unchanged at 2.66%.
Industrial production expanded in just one of the euro-zone’s four largest economies. Germany’s production expanded by 0.8% over the month while the growth figures for France, Spain and Italy were -0.7%, -0.4% and -1.8% respectively.