US consumer confidence started 2019 at well above average levels in a longer-term context, although readings were markedly lower than those which typified most of the previous year. Since then, surveys have generally indicated US households have maintained historically-high levels of confidence except for two short-lived plunges; one at the very start of the year and one recently in August.
The latest survey conducted by the University of Michigan indicates the average confidence level of US households has increased for a second consecutive month. The University’s preliminary estimate of its Index of Consumer Sentiment increased from September’s final figure of 93.2 to 96.0 in October, ahead of the consensus figure of 92.
The University’s Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, said, “Overall, the data indicate that consumption spending will be strong enough to offset weakness in business investment spending so as to keep the economy expanding into 2020.”
US Treasury yields finished higher on the day, helped by news of a partial trade with China. By the close of business, 2-year Treasury yields had increased by 5bps to 1.59%, the 10-year yield had gained 6bps to 1.73% and 30-year yields had added 4bps to 2.20%.