ANZ’s job advertisement survey is well-known as a leading indicator of employment numbers in Australia. It reflects changes in demand for labour and it provides another measure of activity in the economy. There is also a fairly good inverse relationship between changes in Australia’s unemployment rates and changes in the RBA cash rate. Understanding the path of Australia’s unemployment rate has historically provided a reliable indicator of RBA rate changes.
January’s figures have been released and, after revisions, total advertisements were 6.2% higher at 177,961 (seasonally adjusted), up from December’s revised figure of 167,521. On a 12 month basis, job advertisements were 13.82% higher while December’s comparable figure was 11.4%.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics David Plank said these latest figures were consistent with strong business conditions and a sign of renewed employment growth. “The bounce in January is in line with ongoing strength in business conditions, capacity utilisation and other surveys of employment conditions. Taken together, there is some evidence that the slowdown in the trend we saw…last year may reverse in the coming months.” However, he cautioned the figures could vary considerably from month to month at this time of the year.