Summary: Job ads increase modestly in August; previous months’ rebound “did not continue into August”; Victoria a problem but New South Wales “sluggish”; ANZ expects employment to fall in August, September.
From mid-2017 onwards, year-on-year growth rates in the total number of Australian job advertisements consistently exceeded 10%. That was until mid-2018 when the annual growth rate fell back markedly. 2019 was notable for its reduced employment advertising and this trend continued into the first quarter of 2020. Figures plunged in April as pandemic restrictions took effect; subsequent reports’ numbers indicated a partial recovery has taken place.
According to the latest ANZ figures, total advertisements increased by 1.6% in August on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The rise followed a 19.1% rise in July and a 41.0% bounce in June after revisions. On a 12-month basis, total job advertisements were 30.0% lower than in August of last year, up from July’s comparable figure of -33.8%.
ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said, “The solid rebound in ANZ Job Ads in June and July, which saw more than half the pandemic losses recovered, did not continue into August…”
Longer-term Commonwealth bond yields moved higher, largely following US Treasury movements on Friday trading. By the end of the day, the 10-year ACGB yield had increased by 7bps to 0.98% while the 20-year yield finished 10bps higher at 1.56%. The 3-year yield ticked up 1bp to 0.31%.
Birch noted the influence of Victorian restrictions on a quarter of the nation’s employed, saying the regulations “have undoubtedly put the brakes on.” Perhaps more concerning was the data from New South Wales. There, growth in job advertising “has been sluggish compared with other parts of the country.”