From mid-2017 onwards, year-on-year growth rates in the total number of Australian job advertisements consistently exceeded 10%. That was until mid-2018 when the annual growth rate fell back markedly and then turned negative in early 2019.
According to the latest ANZ figures, total advertisements fell by 1.7% in November on a seasonally-adjusted basis, following a 1.0% fall in October. On a 12-month basis, total job advertisements were 12.6% lower than the same month last year, a further deterioration from October’s comparable figure of -11.3% after revisions.
ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said the survey’s role as a leading indicator was reasserting itself. “Although there has been a longer lag than usual, the downturn in the number of advertisements may be starting to filter through to the labour market.”
Domestic bond yields finished the day noticeably higher, although it is unlikely the sell-off was driven by these figures, October’s dwelling approvals figures or the latest Inflation Gauge reading. By the end of the day, 3-year ACGB yields had gained 4bps to 0.69% while 10-year and 20-year yields had each increased by 6bps to 1.10% and 1.50% respectively.
Prices of cash futures contracts moved to lower expectations of another cut in the cash rate target, although one more rate cut is still largely expected within the next six months. By the end of the day, December contracts implied a 9% chance of another 25bps rate cut, down from the previous day’s 13%. February contracts implied a 70% chance of a cut, down from 77% while May continued to fully price in another rate reduction.