Total job advertisements fell back in July after two months of rises, according to ANZ’s monthly jobs ads survey. The month-on-month figure fell by 0.8%, although the year to July figure remains positive at 6.9%. After revisions to past data, June’s comparable figures were 0.4% and 8.0% respectively.
The survey’s results produce what economists call a “leading indicator”, or a statistic which gives a strong hint as to the direction and strength of parts of the economy. In the case of ANZ’s job ads survey, it provides a preview of conditions in the employment market, especially with regards to employer demand for labour. More advertisements generally means more hirings, a stronger economy ahead and thus lower unemployment rates.
ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics, Felicity Emmett, thinks Australia’s labour market had slowed as a result of employers’ hesitation after the Federal election and during the period surrounding the UK’s EU vote. However, she thinks their reluctance to recruit is likely to be temporary. “This impact appears to have been short-lived, with job ads picking up over the course of July, and little sustained effect from the increase in uncertainty on business and consumer confidence…With surveyed business conditions remaining upbeat and the RBA cutting rates in August, we look for a gradual improvement in hiring intentions over the remainder of the year.”
