July Westpac-MI leading index back to “trend” level; stabilising, not recovering

Summary: Leading index growth rate up in July; Westpac: broader picture one of stabilisation rather than recovery; reading implies annual GDP growth of around 2.25%-2.50%; ACGB yields fall; rate-cut expectations firm; Westpac: growth momentum looks likely to remain bogged down for some time; Westpac: forecasts 1.6% GDP growth in calendar 2024, 2.3% in calendar 2025. Westpac and the Melbourne Institute describe their Leading Index as a composite measure which attempts...

read full story