Leading index stalls; “remains in deep negative territory”

19 August 2020

 

Summary:  Leading index improves marginally in July; implies annual GDP growth to fall to ~-1.75% later this year/early next year; still consistent with recession; Westpac forecasts flat GDP in September quarter, 2.8% growth in December quarter; forecast based on easing of Victorian restrictions, no outbreaks elsewhere in Australia; RBA expects essentially no growth over second half of 2020.   Westpac and the Melbourne Institute describe their Leading Index as a...

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