From mid-2017 onwards, year-on-year growth rates in the total number of Australian job advertisements consistently exceeded 10%. That was until mid-2018 when the annual growth rate fell back markedly and then continued to deteriorate for the remainder of 2018 and into 2019. Figures from May, June and July were suspected of being overly influenced by the timing of Easter, ANZAC Day and the federal election but the latest numbers should be clear of any such effects.
According to the latest ANZ figures, total advertisements fell by 2.8% on a seasonally-adjustment basis, a distinct turnaround from the increases in June and July. On a 12-month basis, total job advertisements were 11.4% lower than last year, a further deterioration in the annual rate from July’s comparable figure of -9.1% after revisions.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics David Plank said the figures from this survey confirmed his suspicions of the reliability of data from previous months. “We had postulated that the gain in job ads in June and July was a consequence of the holiday and election-related weakness in May, rather than a sign of genuine recovery.”
He also said the figures were consistent with other reports, noting NAB’s Business survey and recent building reports suggested “the outlook for the labour market is softening”. He expects the RBA to cut the cash rate target to 0.75% in October.