More sub-trend growth; May Westpac-MI leading index declines

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26 June 2024

 

Summary: Leading index growth rate down in May; Index points to below-trend growth tracking in second half of 2024, early 2025; reading implies annual GDP growth of around 2.25%-2.50%; ACGB yields jump; rate-rise expectations firm; higher interest rates, reversal of 2023s commodity price gains, difficult conditions in homebuilding sector the main negatives. Westpac and the Melbourne Institute describe their Leading Index as a composite measure which attempts to estimate the...

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