Summary: Job ads increase in February; double-digit growth over past 12 months; despite WA, Vic lockdowns; “ongoing strength” suggests job growth in February, March.
From mid-2017 onwards, year-on-year growth rates in the total number of Australian job advertisements consistently exceeded 10%. That was until mid-2018 when the annual growth rate fell back markedly. 2019 was notable for its reduced employment advertising and this trend continued into the first quarter of 2020. Figures plunged in April 2020 as pandemic restrictions took effect but then recovered relatively quickly.
According to the latest ANZ figures, total advertisements increased by 7.2% in February on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The rise followed a 2.6% increase in January and an 8.7% gain in December after revisions. On a 12-month basis, total job advertisements were 13.4% higher than in February 2020, up from January’s comparable figure of 5.5%.
“ANZ Job Ads growth accelerated out of the summer holidays, despite five-day lockdowns in Western Australia and Victoria during February,” said ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch.
The figures were released on the same day as a swag of local economic reports, including the Melbourne Institute’s Inflation Gauge and January’s housing finance figures. Commonwealth bond yields fell significantly on the day, reversing some of the previous week’s rises and following large falls of US Treasury yields on Friday night. By the close of business, the 3-year ACGB yield had shed 9bps to 0.28%, the 10-year yield had dropped 24bps to 1.67% and the 20-year yield finished 21bps to 2.36%.
Birch said “ongoing strength” in the series suggests employment growth should continue in February and March and “the impact of the end of JobKeeper in March will be mitigated to some extent.” However, she also noted “we are still in the dark as to how many businesses and workers remain on JobKeeper” and therefore the impact of the end of the programme remains uncertain.