Summary: Job ads increase significantly in July; gains slowed in second half of month; “other worrying signs”; “10% of businesses to close, 13% to reduce workforce” once government programmes cease.
From mid-2017 onwards, year-on-year growth rates in the total number of Australian job advertisements consistently exceeded 10%. That was until mid-2018 when the annual growth rate fell back markedly. 2019 was notable for its reduced employment advertising and this trend continued into the first quarter of 2020. April’s numbers set a record of the worst type but subsequent reports have produced a partial recovery.
According to the latest ANZ figures, total advertisements increased by 16.7% in July on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The rise followed a 41.4% jump in June and a 0.1% fall in May after revisions. On a 12-month basis, total job advertisements were 34.0% lower than in July of last year, up from June’s comparable figure of -44.6%.
ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch noted “the pace of gains slowed, particularly in the second half of the month” which she attributed to the re-introduction of Stage 3 restrictions in Victoria.
The ANZ report came out on the same day as the Melbourne Institute’s June Inflation Gauge report and long-term Commonwealth bond yields moved higher, ignoring lower US Treasury movements in overnight trading. By the end of the day, the 3-year ACGB yield remained unchanged at 0.30% while 10-year and 20-year yields both finished 5bps higher at 0.88% and 1.46% respectively.
“There have been other worrying signs,” according to Birch. She pointed to a downturn in payrolls in early July and speculated “some industries that were less affected earlier in the pandemic, such as construction and professional services, may now be suffering lagged impacts.” Birch quoted an ABS survey in mid-July in which “10% of businesses reported they would close and 13% would reduce their workforce” once government programmes ceased.