Summary: Payrolls and wages both fall in fortnight to 8 August; “weakest since early June”; payrolls and wages both down by around 5%, 6% respectively since start of restrictions; “second-round impacts” affecting non-Victorian states; timing of stage 4 restrictions in Melbourne “suggests further falls in payrolls are likely”.
The ABS has released its latest payroll report containing new statistics on jobs and wages based on Single Touch Payroll data provided by the ATO. Job losses do not directly translate into additional unemployment; some people hold more than one job and the report’s figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Payroll numbers continued to ease in the last week of July and the first week of August. Total payrolls for the fortnight to 8 August fell by 0.8%, adding to the 0.3% fall in the previous fortnight.
“Although the most recent historical payroll jobs data were revised upwards, jobs are now down 4.9% since the week ending 14 March. This is the weakest they’ve been since early June,” said ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch.
The picture for wages also appears a little grim. Total wages for the fortnight to 8 August fell by 0.6%, adding to the 1.3% drop in the previous two weeks.
13 out of the 19 sectors experienced losses in the week to 8 August, with the “Administrative and support services”, “Health care and social assistance” and Professional, scientific and technical services” segments providing the largest source of losses on the overall total. Payrolls declined in these sectors by 1.8%, 0.6% and 1.1% respectively over the week. The “Education and training” segment accounts for just over 8% of total payrolls and its 1.4% increase had a sizable offsetting effect.