PCE figures in line; rate cut still expected

28 June 2019

One of the US Fed’s favoured measures of inflation is the change in the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. After hitting the Fed’s target at 2.0% in mid-2018, the annual rate then hovered in a range between 1.8% and 2.0% through to the end of 2018. Since then, the annual rate has fallen back to around 1.5%.

 The latest figures have now been published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as part of the May personal income and expenditures report. Core PCE inflation was +0.2% for the month, the same rate as in April and in line with what had been expected. On a 12-month basis, the core PCE inflation rate remained at 1.6%.