“Sub-par” retail but room for optimism: Westpac

08 December 2015

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released October retail sales figures which were a little higher than the market expectation of a 0.4% rise, rising a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month. The rise was higher than September’s 0.4% and driven by driven by furniture and appliance sales, as well as clothing and footwear. The cafes and restaurants segment which drove September sales, reversed direction and declined by 2.1%.

All states had gains in seasonally adjusted terms except for Western Australia where seasonally adjusted sales were stable. On a year-on-year basis, sales were up 3.9%, up from September’s annual figure of 3.7%.

Westpac summed up the sales growth rate as “sub-par, particularly given that retailers should be indirectly benefitting from the lower AUD’s boost to Australia’s tourism sector and a consistently more upbeat picture from private sector business surveys.” However, the bank points to recent positive consumer surveys and suggest the summer period “may see some better retail results.” Commonwealth Bank viewed the results in a more positive light. “The positivity in retail sales growth over 2015 is very encouraging because of the significant headwinds of weak consumer sentiment and weak household disposable income growth.”

October retail sales chart