US consumer confidence collapsed in late 2007 as the US housing bubble burst and the US economy went into recession. By 2016, it had clawed its way back to neutral and then went from strength to strength until late 2018. After a dramatic drop through December and January, index values then oscillated at historically high levels. The latest report is a continuation of this pattern.
The latest Conference Board survey indicates US consumers are still quite optimistic despite trade and geo-political tensions. The latest reading came in at 121.1, a considerable amount below May’s final figure of 131.3 but still at an elevated level. Consumers’ views of business and labour market conditions and their short-term outlook for income, business and employment market conditions all deteriorated.
Lynn Franco, The Conference Board’s Director of Economic said, “The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence. Although the Index remains at a high level, continued uncertainty could result in further volatility in the Index and, at some point, could even begin to diminish consumers’ confidence in the expansion.”