US consumer confidence collapsed in late 2007 as the US housing bubble burst and the US economy went into recession. By 2016, it had clawed its way back to neutral and then went from strength to strength until late 2018. Since then, measures of consumer confidence have oscillated within a fairly narrow band at historically high levels. This latest report had continued this pattern.
The latest Conference Board survey indicates US consumers have remained quite optimistic as trade and geo-political tensions have emerged and then dissipated. July’s reading came in at 135.7, a large increase above June’s final figure of 124.3 and not that far from its all-time high. Consumers’ views of present conditions and the short-term outlook with regards to the business environment and the labour market all improved.
A month ago, Lynn Franco, The Conference Board’s Director of Economic, had noted the effect of trade and tariff tensions and suggested any continuation was likely to “diminish consumers’ confidence”. In July, those fears faded. “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labour market conditions. In addition, their expectations regarding their financial outlook also improved.”