The quit rate time series produced by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a leading indicator of U.S hourly pay. As wages account for around 55% of a product’s or service’s price*, wage inflation and overall inflation rates tend to be closely related. Former Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen was known to pay close attention to the quit rate but whether new Fed chief Jerome Powell regards the indicator with as much interest is as yet unknown.
Figures released as part of the January JOLTS report show the quit rate slipped back from a revised figure of 2.2% of the non-farm workforce at the end of December to 2.1% at the end of January. The fall was driven by lower quit figures in the professional/business services sector and, to a lesser extent, the healthcare sector.
