The quit rate time series produced by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is a leading indicator of U.S hourly pay. As wages account for around 55% of a product’s or service’s price*, wage inflation and overall inflation rates tend to be closely related. Former Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen was known to pay close attention to the quit rate but whether new Fed chief Jerome Powell regards the indicator with as much interest is as yet unknown.
Figures released as part of the December JOLTS report show the quit rate increased from 2.1% of the non-farm workforce at the end of November to 2.2% at the end of December. The increase was driven by higher quit figures in the accommodation and food services sectors and, to a lesser extent, in the retail sector.
